Why Bitcoin Crashed!

This is why it crashed...

Posted this elsewhere but relevant here:

When markets are understood, the idea that everyone can make money is not only inaccurate but impossible and laughable. Everyone making money means there is no market, because who would be taking the other side of the trade?

It is no mistake that individuals begin to like the same sorts of fashions that everyone is wearing. In a quest to change, the majority of society ends up changing together, moving towards similar desires and away from similar dislikes. Therefore, what the market is offering provides the exact thing that will lure the trader into the crowd.

For example, someone who has little experience investing wants to get involved because everyone else in their social circle is, ads are all over tv and even their nightly newscasters are talking a lot more about how the market is so good. In this environment you can be certain there will be lots of “helping hands” to welcome this investor to the crowd, teach them to be a part of the crowd and initiate them into the world of the blind leading the blind.

The market is unlikely to reverse to any significant degree until almost everyone is on one side. Which means almost everyone who joined that party late is going to lose. A bunch of people may just decide to wait, but so will the market. And if people are divided then the market will move in a ranging fashion.

People are the catalyst and without people to create an extreme the market won’t hit an extreme and reverse–remember the market does not act on its own, we…the people… are the market. In other words, the boom and bust cycles will not end. We progress and regress and then progress again.

Until almost everyone is in the trend, it won’t stop. The trend will keep going, enticing more people in, and when it reaches critical mass (which it can’t do without pretty much everyone on board) a reversal occurs. This change in fortune (for the worse) causes concern and then panic as a full reversal occurs. And as the mood of society continues to grow darker people feel more hopeless and give up fanciful notions of making money with crypto and so it will continue to drop.

In other words, the very thing which lures people in droves (big returns) ironically means that most of those people will be on the losing end of that exchange. In another ironic twist, when people clamor into the market all at once out of greed and a belief that a new era has begun, they bring about the exact opposite. @pawsdog

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pawsdog (55) · 7 years ago

$3.16

1 vote

swissclive (63) · 7 years ago

@pawsdog. The madness of crowds is at work here. I don’t feel this is the big one, but it will shake out the weaker holders before the next ascent.

$0.00

I could see that or it could serve as a healthy warning of larger impending doom.. If you in at 6, 7 or 8k then its not such a big deal. If your in at 11 then it would be a big deal, which would be those that showed up late for the party...