Does the change in behavior signal a possibility of a further fall? We shall try to forecast it using our chart analysis.
The South Korean government’s proposed regulations and curbs on cryptocurrency trading have dampened the sentiment. After all, the nation with a relatively small geographical territory is responsible for a sizeable trading volume, about one-fifth by some measures, in Bitcoin.
Nick Colas, one of the first Wall Street analysts to cover Bitcoin, believes that 2018 will see a surge in volatility with about 40 percent falls. If that happens, timing the markets become that much more important. A buy and hold strategy, similar to 2017, might not be the best way to trade Bitcoin.
We shall try to identify these turning points for our traders so that they don’t get stuck with huge losses.
BTC/USD
In our previous analysis, we had mentioned that Bitcoin’s pullback will face a strong hurdle between $15,118.45 and $16,160.02. Yesterday, Bitcoin turned down after reaching $16,494.53.
The cryptocurrency has a strong support at the trendline. We expect the bulls to attempt a recovery from here. If they are able to break out of $16,494.53 levels, we should see a retest of the highs.
On the other hand, if the BTC/USD pair breaks down of the trendline, it can fall to $12,788.14 levels, which is a critical support zone.
Though not perfect, the digital currency is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern, which will complete on a breakdown and close below the neckline (drawn in orange color on the chart). However, we expect strong buying support to emerging between $10,704.99 to $12,788.14.
With conflicting signals, we are unsure about the next possible direction in Bitcoin. We shall watch the action from the sidelines until the picture clears out.
ETH/USD
Ethereum is facing selling in the $728.92 - $787.89 zone, which corresponds to 61.8 percent and 78.6 percent retracement levels of the recent fall from $863 to $512.
The digital currency is now likely to fall to the 20-day EMA, which should offer a strong support.
However, if negative sentiment prevails and the cryptocurrency breaks below the 20-day EMA, its next support is at $600 levels.
We will attempt a buy on the ETH/USD pair only when it breaks out and closes above the downtrend line (the orange line drawn on the chart).
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash is resuming its decline after failing to breakout and sustain above the 5o percent Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from $4,139.0893 to $1,733.3558.
The cryptocurrency has a strong support at the $2,300 levels. However, if the bears are able to break down below this level, a fall to the 50-day SMA is likely.
On the other hand, if the bulls hold the $2,300 levels, the BCH/USD pair will remain range-bound for a few days between $2,300 and $3,200. We shall wait for a clear trend to form before recommending any trade on it.
XRP/USD
In our previous analysis, we foresaw a resumption of the Ripple uptrend. As expected, the cryptocurrency made a new lifetime high yesterday and is on its way up once again.
If the bulls manage to sustain above the $1.24950 levels, the XRP/USD pair should rally towards its target objective of $1.5.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the digital currency breaks below the trendline support. As the sentiment across most other cryptocurrencies is negative, traders who are long Ripple should trade with an appropriate stop loss.
IOTA/USD
We anticipated an up move in IOTA to carry it towards the upper end of the range. However, yesterday’s attempt to rally faced strong selling pressure above the $3.75 mark. Today, the digital currency is back at the support levels of $3.03200 once again.
As the bulls failed to push the cryptocurrency higher, the bears will now attempt to breakdown of the range.
If the IOTA/USD pair breaks down and closes below the range, its uptrend will be in danger. The final support zone is between the 50-day SMA and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of $2.62196. Below this, IOTA can plunge to $1.81512 levels.
On the other hand, if the bears are unable to sustain below the support of the range, the cryptocurrency will remain range bound between $3.36990 and $5.59.
LTC/USD
The pullback in Litecoin has been facing selling pressure at the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of $272.6. An attempt to break out of this resistance failed on Dec. 26 and Dec. 27. The cryptocurrency has turned down to the critical support of $240.001 once again.
The LTC/USD pair has also formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern with the neckline at $240. If this level breaks, the pair has a lower pattern target of $110. However, we don’t see a straight slide to the target objective. The bulls will attempt to hold the supports at $220 and $175.199. Whether the supports hold is difficult to predict.
Our bearish view will be invalidated once the digital currency trades above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of $295.586.
DASH/USD
Yesterday, Dash attempted to breakout of the overhead resistance of $1,200 but failed. The pullback could not even reach the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of $1,250. This shows weakness.
Today, the cryptocurrency has resumed its decline. It is currently taking support at the 20-day EMA. If this support fails, a fall to the trendline is likely. We expect the trendline to offer a strong support.
However, until we see the DASH/USD pair forming a bottom, we shall stay on the sidelines.
XMR/USD
Monero rallied sharply from a low of $83.02 on November 03 to a high of $469.5 on Dec. 20. That’s a massive 465 percent rally in about a month and a half.
The correction on Dec. 21 and Dec. 22 plunged the cryptocurrency to a low of $245.1, just above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels. However, lower levels saw strong buying, which helped the XMR/USD pair to recover and pullback to $410 on Dec. 23.
However, the bears are selling at higher levels and the bulls are buying at lower levels. This is likely to lead to a range-bound trading action until one party relents.
Critical levels to watch on the downside are $320 and $300 and on the upside, is $410. Monero will become bearish if it breaks down of the supports and will become bullish if it breaks out of the overhead resistance.
By Rakesh Upadhyay