Tether is a cryptocurrency designed to be pegged to the USD in a 1-to-1 ratio. Doubts about whether or not this is true have been floating around for months now, but Tether mostly left the news cycle since the $30m hack back in November. However, it's back in full force now as their relationship with their auditor recently dissolved. Is this the end for Tether?
Nobody knows, and the reality is that establishing a time-line of such an event is near impossible. However, what we do know is that Tether has been increasing the rate at which they print money. Most of the crypto community is cautious about it even if they use it, suggestings its public perception isn't the highest. They've have many issues with banking - What do you think the odds are that serious individuals and businesses have increasing demand for Tether which matches the rate at which they are being created?
Even if Tether ISN'T a scam though, they have massive regulatory risk. The primary function of Tether is to bypass regulations and capital controls that exchanges face with using the real USD or other fiat currencies. As they grow larger and larger, Tether will paint a bigger and bigger target on their heads and eventually the US government or another government will likely take action against them.
However, I still suspect Tether is a scam either way as it looks and behaves like one. When Tether retailiates against the accusations made against them by Bitfinexed, they sound like children rather than professionals (a characteristic I have seen as particularly common in the crypto space). The dissolvement of their relationship with their auditor suggests the auditor found details that Tether wasn't comfortable with revealing.
If it looks like a duck, acts like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. It is highly probable Tether is a scam and if it is well interconnected with Bitfinex as many suspect, then this poses a huge systemic and systematic risk to cryptocurrencies as a whole. Keep a close eye and be cautious. Thanks for watching / reading!
This is a perfect opportunity to bring up bitUSD from bitshares. bitUSD is 2x collateralized by BTS value backing it and is fully auditable on chain. Also, there is no central authority to go after.
Would love to see an episode where you show how to lock up BTS for bitUSD. Also, it would be great to show people how to purchase bitUSD.
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Might look into making a video on 'stable' coins in future just in general given it is a popular topic.
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Would be good to differentiate Tether vs Bitshares USD
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Won't the deflationary properties of crypto collide with the inflation of the Fiat is is back on. Also won't the trading of the crypto affect the price. What happens when people try to pump and dump collateralized crypto curencies. Also cuz it is free float, wouldn't the price change anyway, will the price differnce be marginal, such as tether or will big pump and dumps devalue the currency below the collateral.
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These are legitimate questions that the @bitshares community should take into considerations before bringing such a dangerous game into mainstream adoption. Please note, the crypto space is filled with unpredictable moments--look at what happens to SBD now!
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You're saying that everybody should be sending their BTC, ETH and Ripple to bitshares.org via blocktrades etc. and change them into bit$ there after blocktrades changed those into BTS (because there's really nowhere else these bit$ could possibly go, or if they did, why wouldn't anyone have more faith in them as they now have in tether), and as these bit$s are derivatives like bitgold etc., they would have to bind an extra $1.75 of their real dollars to buy one of them, and that to send their real dollars to bitshares, they should NOT be sending tether from the centralized exchange where they are trading now, because tether cannot be trusted ?
And that there is no central authority 'to go after.' You see, as there is no way to get fiat to bishares.org directly, it makes no sense complaining about the necessary intermediaries, as the authorities are controlling people at the other end, where they live, via their banks and the centralized exchanges, as long as you guys don't manage to dream up a way to get the money into a decentralized one, possibly without using a bank or a credit card... this is all rather delusional, even while lots of Chinamen're now dodging frontier guards at Hong Kong wearing body stockings filled with cash.
The way the crypto market is creating its own FUD, it will definitely end up in the hands of central authorities for the simple reason that the way the little boys behave, everybody will be calling for the big boys, to make sure their funds are safe, as the impression that the entire market is a Ponzi made by folks who just dream up virtual products, may be be intensifying rapidly and ruin the entire concept of crypto.
Proposing that customers change one of their hard-earned dollars into 2.75 virtual ones, and to spread that idea, might just topple the vat. That's humanity's tragedy (uh no - lets just call it a burlesque drama) that it keeps complaining about a lack of freedoms, when we're really a bunch of insane, adolescent primates who are using every opportunity in the sandpit to steal each others' shovels the instant big daddy happens to look in a different direction. It's either no trust or too much... ;)
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Don't put words into my mouth because you don't understand the concept of collateralized assets. Get a book. Read it.
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Seems you might appreciate words put into your mouth as your time is too precious to actually explain things to concerned customers - like, why they would pay $2.75 for one bit$, just to have "more security."
Upvoting your own posts is of course quite in the style of steemit, where egalitarian whales rule with highly convincing "steem power."
You're proving my arguments in such a concise manner that potential customers will hopefully now better understand the risks involved, though they'll certainly keep asking themselves what the actual benefits are supposed to be - as the salesmen prefer to not mention the subject.
Texas authorities have just taken the first step to inhibit the growth of Arise Bank, a bitshares partner. I've been watching bitshares since I started being interested in crypto, and I've seen this coming up.
It's complicated, they are not just letting us put our money on decentralized exchanges anonymously. Too good to be true.
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Speaking of salesmen, well I have been a salesman once in a while, and I know how salespersons behave. They tend to dodge those critical inquiries whom the potential customers are throwing at them when the product they are trying to sell doesn't support the customer's needs. It is called diversionary tactics, by shifting the direction of the sales pitch into something fancy feature that the customer won't even need after all.
P. S.
I only use BTS to move my funds from exchange to another exchange to save me from withdrawal and high transaction fee. But when Doge is available, I always prefer Doge because it has more inherent liquidity among all utility coins.
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Seriously go read what collateralized asset are before saying stupid stuff., you are embarasing yourself. AriseBank was not a bitshares partner. They wanted to use Bitshares for their tech.
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The Tether/Bitfinex affair demonstrates the lunacy of the cryptocurrency libertarian revolutionaries' fantasy of their technology fueled utopia of non-government. No sane polity will allow for usurpation of coinage and capital controls by two-bit hacks "minting" digital garbage.
As you eloquently point-out, the central authorities merely need to control the access points to and from the crypto-market by enforcing AML regulations that already govern banks and financial institutions. When no banks will deal with cryptocurrency exchanges, the entire scheme will collapse. That the central authorities of major polities have allowed for the growth of cryptocurrency market, thus far, assures near-future central control and regulation over the cryptocurrency market. It will be beneficial to all involved, when central authorities properly regulate cryptocurrencies paving the way for major financial institutions to enter. Then, and only then, will mainstream adoption finally occur. Decentralization is a garbage pipe dream of teenagers for a by-gone era that have not existed for ten-thousand years.
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I don't necessarily have to agree with this observation. Do not underestimate the power of peer-to-peer exchange as demonstrated by LocalBitcoins.
If the government goes full retard on AML/KYC implementation, then it opens the door for people to resist and go all in to the black market where exchange is done via remittance centers, e-currency like Perfect Money and MTO services.
The harder to buy, the price soars to the moon! Crypto will then become more valuable store of value than ever.
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When cryptocurrency to fiat conversion is essentially severed by banking interests and governing regulatory agencies, then cyrptocurrencies effectively become worthless baubles. Cryptocurrency is not like heroin or cocaine that has end-use value. It is merely an exchange medium that requires an end-point conversion to fiat. What sane mercantile institution will accept cryptocurrencies for their wares, when there exists no financial institution for fiat conversion?
For cryptocurrencies to have any value, it requires banking cartel support and government assent for fiat convertibility. Can "peer to peer" transactions support millions or billions of USD worth of transaction orders? Peer to peer is a fad, not some revolutionary exchange medium that will replace the current financial institutions.
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bitUSD can be purchased for very close to a dollar. The margin requirements only apply to “creating” bitUSD.
For example; yesterday I put 1200 bts up for collateral and borrowed 300 bitUSD, then I bought 300$ worth of bts and immediately put in a slightly higher sell order, and 1 hr later, I closed every thing out and now I have 1230 bts. I’m new to Bitshares and wanted to see for myself how it works.
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Have used bit.USD with great success in the past. Though I am now no longer as adverse to using USD since if you are playing by the rules you are paying taxes on every trade.
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How can the goverment react to those trades? I mean what are the possibilites? Wouldn't they tax them us as usual trades?
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They do tax crypto trades as usual trades (non-crypto), as of 2018.. sort of. Non-crypto trades involve USD for U.S citizen (typically). Meaning when you sell something you are taxed on it. Now whenever you make a crypto-crypto trade you owe taxes on gains. So even trading in and out of bitcoin you owe.
Before 2018 the allure of tether was that you were only taxed on crypto fiat trades.
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And what BTS is valued in?
Correct, in US dollars. Therefore "bitUSD 2x collateralization by BTS value" is a meaningless expression because once the dollar value of bitUSD evaporates it won't matter how many times something is backed by zero.
And there's something else. Markets always deal with perceptions as suppose to real stuff. Therefore if you create a currency which is a stealth representation of the USD then you committing a grave sin of the unauthorised USD printing and no authority in the world will tolerate its currency counterfeiting.
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Hopefully something like this gets adopted widely before tether goes down, I doubt it though. There might be a rush from exchanges to adopt some sort of replacement after the crash leading to some making suboptimal choices.(AKA not tested/questionable origins)
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It's unfit to be a replacement.
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Or graduate from Fiat peg already and stay in crypto. The whole crypto gotta work to be actual currency, that's the real with and what we want this to be ultimate, is it not?
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While I like the idea of Bitshares economic ecosystem, the question is: what will happen to your BitUSD when the BTS price dives like a starving peregrine falcon?
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Stan Larimer was interviewed by the badcrypto podcast last month and he mentions that Tether is not backed by anything unlike the real US dollar-backed version used in the bitshares.
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I think you meant to say bitUSD, where each $1 is backed by at least $1.75 worth of BTS
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Yeah, we need to get the word out!
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Thanks for this report. I always thought Tether was supposed to be a stable coin. I didn't realize it was such a scam.
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I could not agree more with your assessment of Tether as a ticking time bomb.
I would love to know the real reason the Friedman/Tether relationship ended. The way I see it, there are two likely reasons: 1) The auditors were asking too many questions (i.e. it was likely they were going to uncover the scam) and Tether called it off OR 2) The auditors discovered the fraud and didn't want to issue an opinion so they ended the audit.
I lean more towards option 2. If I were Friedman I wouldn't want to be associated with a negative event in the crypto space. Especially when it sets a precedent for future audits of companies in the crypto space. No company will want to hire the auditors that both destroys a crypto asset and, most likely, brings down one of the biggest crypto exchanges.
I am a CPA and auditor at one of the big global accounting firms. I have seen this same type of activity happen a few times in the past (not to me personally, but to some of my colleagues). It usually results when the auditor finds a problem and the client refuses to acknowledge it's a problem. Instead of getting involved in the scandal and opening the door for legal exposure, the auditor declines to issue an opinion and severs the relationship with the client. If Friedman issues a negative audit report and Tether disagrees, they could (and probably would) sue Friedman for various reasons, even if they are hiding a scandal or fraud. Frankly, Tether is just a ticking time bomb, and it is in Friedman's best interest to distance themselves from the blast as much as possible.
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There is also a possibility that the auditor simply did not want to risk its reputation because the case is highly charged and auditing is difficult and such auditing of crypto currency has never been done before.
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That is a good and valid point.
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Tether somewhat reminds of WorldCom...
I agree ,i bet the auditors most likely were looking at inflated or false numbers ...and asked "what is this?"
As anyone whos works at a legitimate financial company knows...reputation is huge .
Tether has always been a bit shady in regards to what they have falsely represented.
(In a criminal aspect, its brilliant because too many investors in this space...don't take the time to actually read up the white paper. They just dump cash into what's "hot")
This would be the ideal market for anyone who follows PT Barnum's famous quote
"There's a sucker born every minute"
Great comment btw.
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Since Tether will likely do everything in their power to make sure a third party does not expose them, how do you think it will play out? Unless regulators step in and demand a legitimate audit, the only way I see the bubble popping is if a large number of USDT holders try to cash out for USD. Can you even do that directly through Tether? Are there any exchanges that offer a USDT-USD pairing?
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You can use Kraken for exchanging USDT-USD
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Personally, it took me a little while to realize USDT ≠ USD. It is used in exchanges as if it was the same.
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I've always been leery of tether but didn't realize until now that Poloniex and binance quote their Bitcoin prices in Tether. Also, this is the number that is picked up by coinmarketcap
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See thats the problem i believe.
An exchange might have liability issues based on that.
ALOT of people think its USD.
Kinda scary when you think how many have their positions based on this aspect.
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Thanks for your insights. I'm not sure which is the case, but I'm excited to find out. The only part I am sure about is something is afoul - my spidey sense is tingling!
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Thanks for that insigth. :)
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I know you said you don't know what will happen when Tether collapses however I would like your opinion of the following scenarios and how you would rank them in terms of probability. I'm going to focus the options around Bitcoin.
a. Bitcoin remains stable as $2 billion has evaporated from the ecosystem which results in much lower liquidity, this results in a trading halt as no one selling Bitcoin on the USDT exchanges (which is most the volume). Essentially no major change to the crypto market.
b. Bitcoin prices go up due to high buy pressure as more people will try to unload their Tether bags they will drive the price of Bitcoin upward, once Tether crashes Bitcoin could be trading at 100k+ USDT. This could create a new floor/support for Bitcoin well above the ATH. I don't really see why there would be reason to sell Bitcoin if Tether crashed, I would personally just hold my Bitcoin. This would also mean this has achieved the ultimate goal of Tether/Finex (as speculated by Bitfinex'ed), artificially inflating the price of Bitcoin.
c. Bitcoin crashes with tether as Bitfinex will likely go down with Tether, causing massive FUD within the market with Mt Gox 2.0. People panic sell in the Fiat exchanges causing the "Bubble Pop" as they feel the price of Bitcoin was artificially inflated. This is obviously the most un-ideal situation.
There are endless variations to the above scenarios. Would like to hear opinions from the other readers too.
My ranking would be
b. BTC increases - 50%
c. Bubble Pops - 40%
a. Nothing really happens - 10%
Bonus question. As you mentioned many exchanges have USDT pairs to bypass regulation, if Tether was to exit scam what is the worst case scenario? Let's use Binance or Bittrex as the example, would this implode their exchange? or would exchanges result in BAU regardless what happens. Can't really play this one out in my head.
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Apologies if someone has already said this....
So to summarise, we all suspect that there is a giant money printing machine sitting at the heart of cryptocurrency, printing fake dollars (USDT), which are then used to purchase bitcoin etc, thus artificially keeping crypto prices high.
Therefore those holding tethers may find that they own a coin with no value and the crypto market crashes due to this plus the fake QE printing press is turned off, which no longer supports current price levels. Oh and Bitfinex goes out of business too, which means anyone holding coins on that exchange could potentially lose all of them.
It sounds like those holding tether will likely lose everything and those holding crypto will see the value of their holdings fall off a cliff?
The last time something like this happened the bear market lasted two years? This sounds like a cataclysm waiting to happen....
Then following this disaster, governments around the world regulate the hell out of the market so their citizens cannot be swept up in a similar fraud again...?
P.S. I am guessing that everyone noticed that they just printed another $600M dollars worth of tethers yesterday (28th Jan)? Thus increasing the supple of tethers by roughly 37%??
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Btw, will you do a video on dividends within crypto? I mean I've been able to figure out how to sell most of my bitcoin cash, bitcoin gold, and some of these other alts like stellar lumens that give you there free coins if you just have bitcoin. I literally made around 24% from these airdrops and hard forks in 2017. Why would I remove myself from that even if price drops and the bubble does pop?
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Well, the Past Market drops was about 90%.
There is a nice resistance Line at about 1.800$ for Bitcoin.
I wouldn't recommend to ride this Bear. ;)
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Who cares, if it gets back up again? I probably will die and still have the same amount of BTC than today... :-)
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I don't think so.
The next Pump will hopefully be without Bitcoin. It's simply outdated and up to 55$ TX-Fees ... WTF!
The Market will be better of with Ethereum, Litecoin and IOTA on Top.
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Agreed, I will hate to seen BTC go but we do have to face reality. Even if they improve scalability & low fees, this will be at the expense of decentralization. No thanks, BTC
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I send today Bitcoin and I paid around 50c for the transaction. The spam got cleared of the mempool and you dont need to pay 55$ for TX, you can of course, but you dont have too. And those things will be sorted out.
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Oh ok - didn't know that - Thanks
I only used Litecoin since a few month.
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I always use this (https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/) to calculate optimal fee.
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Yes, I'd like to talk about income-based investing in cryptocurrencies in future (forks, airdrops, masternodes, etc.). Part of the great part about investing in dividend stocks is that even if bubble pops, certain amount of profit is locked-in unless you are reinvesting (which, ironically is the recommended choice in stocks but may be less so in crypto given risk).
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Very interesting. Richard Heart made a similar point in a recent video, that Bitcoin's real strength is the ability to collect 'dividends' from other projects that Fork of BTC- such as BCash, Bitcoin Gold, Zcash, etc. Collecting Airdrops such as Byteball is also another benefit.
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Neo kinda gives a dividend when you hold it, mining gas coin. So far it's worked. Idk how dividends would work because crypto is much different than traditional div paying stocks.
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Awesome! I really love your video! I think you did another one on Tether in the past. I really love your delivery and information.
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@teamsteem I agree! This is a great video showing the problems of Tether!
By the way, I was wondering if you got the chance to see the latest post were I mentioned you and made a graphic chart were you are also showcased:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@gold84/the-invisible-forces-of-steem-lukestokes-blocktrades-timcliff-elear-teamsteem-ned-developers-an-autonomous-decentralized
Looking forward to your thoughts on this!
Regards, @gold84
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Got a laugh out of this, thanks for posting it.
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Currently, most of the market cap websites I have seen assume that USDT is the same as USD.
If tether goes down, say today, everyone who is not watching tether will suddenly see everything go up suddenly before a crash, as people realize what is happening. I would keep my trading in a fiat backed exchange just in case.
Welcome back!
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Well said
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Thanks fact.
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Opinions on DAI by Maker?
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And bitUSD. Does anyone know why exchanges don't incorporate them?
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See comment above about stable coins.
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Don't know what the story is with this one (RMG - Royal Mint Gold) - but looks like an ideal Tether replacement: https://cointelegraph.com/news/uks-royal-mint-launches-gold-backed-cryptocurrency
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Thanks for reminding me. I forgot to move my funds... Now I am 100% tether free :)
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Congratulations!
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👍
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Great post
The first time i heard about Tether was in one of your earlier videos and for that reason i have never held any Tether. So Thanks
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The most ironic part of this is that Tether is a "stable coin". This couldn't be further from the truth.
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There seems to be one thing that no one is adressing. Tether can't be pegged to the USD and be backed 1-to-1 with USD. You have to choose.
If it's pegged to USD, Tethers are issues whenever Tether's price drops below $1 and Tethers are burned, destroyed or otherwise removed from circulation whenever the price goes above $1. However, if Tethers are backed 1:1 by USD, the price of Tether is irrelevant. It could easily go way above $1 if people are in a rush to get 'out' of crypto.
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Seems the idea is supposed to be that it is "backed 1:1 by USD" (option 2) and that instead of changing supply portion of equation (as you mention in scenario one), arbitragers fix it by changing demand (increasing as it goes below $1 and decreasing as it goes above $1). Likely the floating supply changes as well depending on value (e.g: arbitragers buy below $1 reducing supply and hold, then sell above $1, increasing supply).
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4I think you have it the wrong way round. If a Tether goes above $1 (say $1.05), Tether Ltd can make 5 cent by issuing a Tether and selling it for $1.05. It owes $1, but owns $1.05. Conversely, if the price of a Tether goes below 1$ (say 0.95$), then Tether can make 5 cents by buying a a Tether for $0.95. It owns 0.95$ less, but owes 1$ less, making it a 5 cent profit. If Tether keep doing this, they could make a profit.
The problem as a I see it is that a) we have no proof of Tether's reserves (and the onus is on them to prove it, not us) b) I can't see the above mechanism working, because Tether can only really be bought or sold in BTC. c) I don't think Tether Ltd (if it even exists as an incorporated entity) even has access to dollar bank accounts.
A possibility is that Tethers are in fact backed by BTC.
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@cryptovestor great video. Besides locking in profits, is there any other way to prepare for this explosion? And more importantly, will you be buying in that dip?
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Unfortunately not. Only way to prepare for anything in crypto market is to have correct allocation BEFORE shit hits the fan. You don't want to try doing a backup after your computer turns on fire, you know? But yes, I'll likely buy into crashes unless I suspect the bubble has popped entirely, in which case I might defer.
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I can not find any reason to tether collapse. tether and bitfinix are making money and people think tether is USD and it doesn't matter if they don't have 100% reserve, even in real world Banks never keep more than 10% as fractional reserve. I think they are printing crazy because they are buying bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, they will sell them later Or they can keep these coins as reserve instate of real USD. anyway they can keep this shitty work as long as Federal Reserve print USD and nobody cares.
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The Federal Reserve isn't happy about tether doing what it does. The whole point of crypto is to get away from inflationary currencies so not only should the US gov be against this(because they're hypocrites) but crypto investors and holders should also be against it.(because it ruins adoption and isn't what crypto is about)
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I understand the risk of using Tether, but how will Tether bring down Bitfinex? It seems to me Bitfinex has a proven track record of having the ability to handle events like being hacked. They fared really well. And Bitfinex should've gained more experience compared to other exchanges. I can tell it has been improving its security by adding Captcha. Sorry, I could be biased since I have been using Bitfinex. I have to say it is one of my favorite exchanges. Could you elaborate more how Tether getting busted would bring down Bitfinex? How Tether getting busted could trigger my coins being lost by them? How will Bitfinex become next Mt. Got? Even if the exchange got busted by US government, I can still transfer my coins out, can't I?
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I was really expecting more and better videos in 2018. Especially better. 15 minutes to say "don't use Tether"?
I'd like to hear more about alts that aren't jokes/scams. In previous videos you've mentioned white papers and development teams. That's what I'd like to see, an in depth analysis of a white paper and dev team CVs.
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foam,
At some point in the future, I'll likely be incorporating some way with my thumbnails to denote "normal," "average," "above average" and "excellent" content. May add a frame around the thumbnail that changes color, or maybe a corner - not sure yet. Anyway, the point being that you can skip over all the videos in the lower 2 categories and only watch videos from the upper two categories.
For the record, I am working everyday to become more and more knowledgable so I can provide that higher quality content. I'm well versed in finance, but am now learning much more of the technicals beyond the generic understanding most people have (e.g: am learning all the scripting for Bitcoin, how the cryptography is done, etc.). It will take a while, so just be patient and I will try to implement that thumbnail solution sooner rather than later.
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Wow I always thought that my FIAT was safe in tether while I waited to buy the dip. Now I guess my money is no longer safe anywhere . This is terrible
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Try OpenLedger.io DEX, you can trade against USD and CNY, without any verification
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Looks like a good option. Though some cryptos are more stable than others, most are still way more unstable than fiat based currencies.
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this is indeed sad, try to look out for a fiat based exchange or just keep your capital into ethereum as it's less volatile than bitcoin
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Great, I will most defiantly looks into these alternatives. Thanks for the help.
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I would never take the chance long-term with Tether, but it's just my opinion. As with anything, you can likely get away with it for a while. Just don't want to get caught with your pants down.
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TETHEEEEEEEER!
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I just came across the topic "Tether" and was wondering how they can reach such a high trading volumes with their limited supply.
XBT, ETH, XRP and most of the other meaningful cryptocurrencies have trading volumes of below 10% of their total supply per day even when the market is going crazy.
USDT has a trading volume of close to 300% of the total supply per day at the moment. How is this even possible?
I also checked the "rich list" of Tether here: https://wallet.tether.to/richlist It states that "OKEx" has about 8 M USDT in their wallet for example. Regarding to coinmarketcap they do have trading volumes of >2.000 M USDT per day at the moment. So if people would start to cash out their USDT they could never fulfil these withdrawals.
Maybe I didn't fully understand the concept of USDT and how exchanges are using it but if so it would be nice if someone could explain this to me :)
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Thanks for the info! Much to think about here... ;)
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Without reading tethers whitepaper, understanding how they "print" tether or understanding their business model I have some questions which are not answered in your video @cryptovestor.
Let's say the backed the first 100 USDT with a 100 USD bill and exchanged it to a fraction of a bitcoin worth 100 USD. Let's say the USD/BTC exchange rate was 1000 USD at this time. What would you do to keep the value of 1 USDT stable if the price rise up to 10k?
I mean if you are Tether you still have 100 USD backing your tether value plus you have a fraction of a BTC which is now worth 10 times more then it was when you exchanged it.
Well now you could exchange your BTC to USD your 100 USDT would be backed by 1100 USD.
To keep the balance you would probably print 1000 USDT and toss them on the marked, wouldn't you?
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I don't know if I'm the only one who sees the scenario of tether going bust as a positive one. I think when that happens we will have a short-lived crash similar to the one from Bitconnect but overall this should bring more stability to the crypto market as more people stay in crypto rather than move in and out at various exchanges using tether. However, there is one scenario that I'm a little worried about.... the one where US government introduces heavy handed regulation using tether as an excuse.
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This is a little more interconnected than Bitconnect was (ironically) for a number of reasons, so that's my major concern related to it. However, it would be a positive event overall as it would at least make the space healthier.
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Actually, I take back what I said. I've started reading more on possible effects and the total amount of USDT transactions is 70% of USD transactions (roughly by taking a quick look at total BTC transactions). If we had a big sell off with 2 billion in BTC to USD transactions and DIDN'T have tether we would increase the USD transactions by 70% more. This would make the lows WAY LOWER. There is only so much cash money sitting on GDAX, Coinbase and gemini accounts. We can't wire money in on weekends. There are ACH limits each day. Where would the extra 1.4 billion come in to support the sell of? What happens to transaction times if all those tether transactions leave the exchanges and move to gemini coinbase etc...
A crash of tether would be detrimental downward spiral. Tether pumps the highs higher and dampens the lows lower.
Thoughts?
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Thanks.
However, the question is: why now?
The Market Cap was once far away from now (07.01.2018/$835 Billion)?
Timing and Market Cap should not be ignored.
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Not sure I understand your question. Why now are they printing so much or why now are they at risk of collapsing or?
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Do you think that the same could be applied on bitUSD!?
I think that there is a lot to be considered:
What is the difference between printing USDT and printing USD by the government?
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Saddest part about this is that I have agreed with this view but had most of my portfolio in since before 2018 due to obvious incoming correction. I have anxiously been wanting to move back in to BTC to trade my alts against, but correction has been taking longer than expected.
Been moving to USD (and a major coin that looks good but I don't give advice so..) over the weekend. Will finish tonight or tomorrow. Can't stand all the attention it has been getting the last week +. Just like beeeeet coooneeeeeccctt too much smoke, don't want to be near when the flames burst out.
Let's be real though.. for the good of crypto, I really hope they are legit and nothing bad ever happens.
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This is really concerning to the entire crypto ecosystem. When the tether/bitfinex shit hits the fan it will ultimately bring down the entire market with it. According to the recent NYT article, apparently both tether and bitfinex had been subpoenaed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission back in December. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html
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@cryptovestor
Looks like you got linked in a mainstream article! (2nd paragraph)
well done :)
http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/without-this-scam-bitcoin-price-would-collapse-fears-grow-over-tether-printing-press-as-auditors-part-ways/news-story/308503ab61f82d320e92847a0b59a23b
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Thanks for bringing this up. Would you say it's safe to trade on bitfinex using other assets rather than tether?
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how would bitfinex be affected by USDT collapsing ??
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Since the beginning I always avoided Tether and just HODLed my BTC. Like you say, if it looks like a duck, acts like a duck...
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I hope it's not going to have too big of an impact on the market long term... that'd be just a shame if some people ruin it for the rest
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Thanks for all your vids.
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You can always count on the government to fuck up something that was otherwise useful, although failing to be successfully audited makes me think Tether won't last nearly long enough for that to come into play. It's sad, too, because a USD stand-in is a very useful tool, and it would lend more credibility to the crypto space if an angry bureaucrat tore it down. Watching another scam reach critical mass and collapse does the exact opposite.
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So the Tether Collapse will most probably correct BTC back to the 200 day average! Be ready to "wait the transaction" but convert your crypto to FIAT when tether collapses!
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Cryptovestor is back!
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watsa watsa watsa watsaaaap TETHEEEEEEEER!
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I'm definitely thinking about shorting Tether. Only problem is the fees to maintain the short position because this thing could still go on for months. Great video.
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I wouldn't bother personally - timing these things is near impossible.
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I would concur with Tether.. How do they keep the each token backed by US maintained especially with a rush to the token? Great video and felt the concern about it as well with people trying to go Tether during this downturn..
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Just noticed that all the tether linked exchanges are trading higher than GDAX. This is not usually the case with GDAX price being much higher usually than the other exchanges. I wonder if there is a relationship
Thanks for the video
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I'd advice people to use bitUSD instead of USDT. It's decentralized and backed by BitShares.
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Thank you so much for referring me too steemit, love your content.
As always another good video! I agree something isn’t right here.
Bitshares all the way, atleast compared too tether.
Also love reading these comments, I may not have much too offer this community but some of these guys are in-depth! Thank you all.
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Ever since I've been into crypto I've been hearing two big scams are in crypto. One being Bitconnect and the other being Tether. Bitconnect looks like the ship is sinking, and Tether looks like its day may be coming as well.
I myself have never used it, but it seems foolish to even assume that you can put your money somewhere that isn't volatile in crypto. One of the great things about cryptocurrency right now is its volatility anyway. Trading back to Bitcoin when you want to exit with profit (and even tracking profit in BTC) has always worked just as well.
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Why have some cryptocurrency based on the dollar when you can just have the dollar? I agree. This is just fraud. But even if it isn't, there is no way it can ultimately exist long term, and while I understand people are using it as a cash exit during crazy market activity, it seems better to just actually go to cash.
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It's used to avoid transaction fees associated with cashing out to fiat. Exchanges that use it like it because it keeps the money on the exchange as well.
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Oh I certainly understand why exchanges like it. If you're a casino, you keep the customer inside the casino as long as possible, make the casino seem like it never ends, loops both inside and outside so the ways to spend and gamble your money are endless...and then you get Las Vegas.
The exchanges are financially motivated to keep the money inside the exchange. The customer / investor however needs to consider how governments will view this as (probably) a fraud off the bat, though it may be a decent enough idea; dollar-backed cryptocurrency. But as @cryptovestor has mentioned, the chance that Tether are actually holding that as cash is poor, or in some liquid asset close enough to cash to be considered liquid, and if some run happened on tether...you get the point. The risk isn't worth the reward here and we really just need better tools to be able to identify the most stable crypto even in a fall to move your asset base to (ether in this case it's been the last couple weeks), cash out to fiat, or just continue to hodl.
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YES! I am so happy to hear you saying this. I'm sure many people are in denial, refusing to see the problems with Tether, because its collapse would deal a huge blow to the trustworthiness of cryptocurrencies in general.
However, I believe this market should get trimmed like a young tree, so the bad "branches" do not block the developement of the good ones. Meaning, the end of Bitfinex is inevitable and the sooner it comes, the sooner we can start recovering from it.
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Tether is surrounded by many questions. I am confident that Bitcoin can overcome any outfall, should Tether indeed turn out to be problematic.
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Solid video, just like DataDash's on this subject. My most successful Youtube video to-date was on Tether, so it seems this subject is in the minds of most cryptoinvestors. With the recent Bear market, I have been surprised how stable Tether has been. Its volume is huge however, on many days the volume matches the coinmarketcap, which is unique for cryptocurrencies.
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I feel that Crypto world is too new to apply regulatory terms applicable to other industries on it. While I agree that Tether team have acted amateurish earlier last year, I would like to know more details on why Friedman/Tether relationship ended. It may be that they may be applying too much parameters which are applicable to traditional industries, and Tether may not be happy with it. Time only will tell that.
Till then people are going to use Tether. I personally like it as it helps to save your profits during bearish weeks like we had in January 2018.
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Thanks for the video! Lots of good points.
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I don't even trade at all and yet still Tether sounded like a scam. So did BitConnect. No idea what kind of people are coming to the market but god damn... people are even paying for "PONZICOIN"!
Also what do you think about refereum?
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I wish these exchanges would stop using tether.
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Just wanted to say how sorry i feel for you trying to put some reasoning in youtube's folk heads, but still they prefer to stick to their belief system, not even paying a little attention to your arguments. Thank you for your work.
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Tether always sounded fishy to me, i ain't using it for nothing... too scamy looking, you are definitively right
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I don't like tether. The reason I got into crypto is to get away from the Fiat! Love your channel!
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Dear Crypto Investor,
We. Want. More. Videos!
The People demand it! :)
That is all.
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I think we all agree we need to stay away from Tether. The problem is, just staying away from Tether not going to help prevent the crash on entire crypto market when tether blows up. I think we need to do something. We need to find a way to influence the exchanges to remove the tether pairs. We may create petitions to bittrex, binance and all major exchanges to remove tether pairs.
As the usage/utility of tether goes down the impact on crypto markets can be mitigated. What you guys think?
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As someone who uses Bitfinex as a primary exchange, this definitely concerns me. I started moving funds to cold wallets from there about 2 weeks ago.
If/when Tether fails, the huge market bleed seems to be inevitable. So, the question is, are there any ways to lock profits in USD but not USDT, other than wire transfer to bank?
Thanks.
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Great Post!
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What US regulations does use of Tether manage to avoid?
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Bitconnect went down pretty fast once the negative news got loud enough so I doubt Tether makes it to Q2. That being said, it might be a good time to just hang on to some cash or move into coins you plan to hold for at least 6 months.
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I tend to agree with you position on Tether, so many red flags there, and definitely something I think that will blow up fairly soon. People should definitely stay far away from it. I am just not so sure it will have such a huge impact on the market tbh. I mean Bitconnect had about the same market cap, and the impact of it blowing up on the rest of the market was minimal. The timing of it happening may have some bearing on the impact, but I think it will end up being a small bump in the road to lambo moon landings.
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Thanks for the video!
Have you looked at DAI? Does it look more legit?
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I don't really see tether going away for these reasons. Binance, Kucoin and other exchanges use USDT, do you really think they would risk their entire platform without making a checkup on tether ? They aren't doing anything illegal and they're not located in the US so no problems here. It is alarming that they do not garantee they will take back their tether but it's probably just to save themselves if things hit the fan. I don't use tether because I'd rather trade ETH pairs for potential growth but I think this is only fud and nothing more.
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Great post and video! You are way to under-evaluated! I m not sure but Tether sure has all the traits for scams. But the problem is not if everyone uses Tether but the problem is what happens to the market after the collapse. Some people have predicted 30% down market. It is too much for no project/coin/team reason
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There is just too much FUD regarding Tether right now.
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Great video. I remember first encountering Tether when I first got into crypto and the whole Tether coin thing just seemed suspicious. I'm grateful to have avoided it this whole time.
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Firstly, Tether banks with an organization in Panama (Panama Papers anyone?) It's no surprise they aren't willing to do any kinds of auditing since banks in that area are known to house illegal activities.
Secondly, it is almost a guarantee that prices of all cryptocurrencies will fall especially since a significant portion of the pump up for bitcoin was as a result of tether. The following image details when tether was printed and how it correlates with bitcoins price increase.
Stay safe!
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What do you make of the surge in Ethereum?
Do you think its sustainable in the 0.10621400 BTC levels?
Thanks for another video and article, I was hoping for one during this recent market bounce
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Someone on YouTube recommended selling cryptos when they were tanking and storing them in tether. For some reason an alarm went off in my head that told me "don't trust that which you don't understand." So, I watched a bunch of videos and decided to just let my cryptos tank. They will go up eventually. HODL.
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Even if it's a scam, and before it is proven it's a scam, how can the US government keep allowing the issuance of a derivative of their currency. Wouldn't that be counterfeiting or something? It's just a matter of time
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The best time to get your money out of Tether and Bitfinex was months ago.
The next best time to get your money out of Tether and Bitfinex is... RIGHT NOW.
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Since my very first beginning in crypto I was against using the tether based exchanges and tether itself automatically. Each time I had to give some advises to newcomers I was telling them my honest opinion that fiat based exchanges are a lot safer.
Thank you for sharing and hopefully with all these tether debates that we've seen recently people will move their tether into bitcoin/altcoins and we might see a plus to the bullyish market that has been already established!
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Good to see you back and putting the focus where it matters. Your presence and contributions to the crypto market mean a lot to us!
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and despite the risk tether poses to the market. You're still bullish?
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I always pass by Tether for alts investments but never leave any amount of money in USDT, it is too risky and shady to me.
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how do you think it's going to affect the market?
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Do you think Tether and Bitfinex are just rogue actors fudging the numbers and cooking the books, or do you think there's a larger criminal conspiracy involving other major exchanges?
Jackson Palmer seemed to hint at the possibility that Bittrex might be buying massive quantities of USDT from Tether, to hide the fact that it's running on a fractional reserve.
Bittrex accepts bank wires denominated in US Dollars, and credits users with the equivalent amount in Tether, so this theory does make some sense.
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Lightning network implemented by exchanges might be a catalyst for Tether to go down. Why? If you are a small time altcoin trader, most probably you store intermediate gains in USDT before accumulating needed amount to move to an exchange that supports withdrawal to a bank account. If Lightning network is implemented and BTC transfer fees go down to cents, who needs Tether anymore? You can take altcoin profit to BTC, transfer it for cents to exchange that is backed by FIAT and exchange to that. That could mean massive decrease of Tether use. And Lightning network should go live this year as impatience is growing and there are already hundreds of nodes running in mainnet
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this one definitely quacks like a scam!
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Thanks always for your great job. I have been always suspicious of Tether since the first time I got into crypto half a year already. I am myself a Bittrex user and I havent touched it yet. This week I started to think more and more about it after seeing how useful can it be in drops like we have seen in this last month. I do have my doubts about what would happen if they take it off and you are in. In one hand I think it is useful as it demonstrates it in every drop but it feels really bad using it cause it has any chance to be a scam. After reading the latest news I had kinda a relief that I wasn't so crazy for not using it
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I am wondering if my exchange would go after me for recovering loss once tether crashed...
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Good stuff. I think it's inevitable that there will be another Mt Gox type disaster, whether it is Bitfinex or something else. It seems that scam coins are way too easy in the crypto world. I wouldn't be surprised if some 12 year old kid created and listed an altcoin on an exchange. My buddy said "we need Tether". That's kind of a solid point. A legit and transparent Tether would be pretty useful.
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Tether might be printing the tethers out of thin air, but so are many others. Isn't most of the crypto space made out of thin air? You might say, ok, but other cryptocurrencies serve a purpose. But Tether also serves a purpose - a price-stable currency, which is very much in demand during market downturns. Don't get me wrong. Tether might be a scam, but if it is, so are many other cryptocurrencies. Why would Tether be different?
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Simply put: Tether says that it backs its tokens 1:1 with usd. That’s a fundamental assurance which in the past its auditor appeared to back. If that assurance has been false, it is a fundamental deception.
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Good to find you here man!
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Don't do dual monitors. Get ultrawide instead. Trust me that for productivity it is much better and easier. You can thank me later when I change your life forever. All joking aside, it really is a life/game changer. Especially if you flip the cash for a curved one.
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Once the tether house of card falls the markets are going to tank so much; I hope everyone is aware of that.
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That is one thing that could happen as a result. But another thing that may happen is that people wil sell to coins that can be used to transfere it to transfere the value over to exchanges that can trade to fiat. And the fastest once that most or all exhcanges have is Bitcoin Cash, Etherium and Litecoin.
And its also important to keep in mind that if Tether falls, then everyone wil sell all the Tether they have into whatever crypto they are the most confident in on the exchange.
And the end result depends on if people end up wanting to sell to fiat, or simply selling Tether.
But then I never used Tehter so I dont know 100% how it operates. If you buy/sell it from a digital tehter wallet that that is tied to your bank account, or if Tether have accounts on all exchanges using it where they places sell and buy orders.
Actually, how is the priced "controlled" to stay around 1$ ?
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Thank you for doing a video on Tether. I had considered asking you for your thoughts about Tether on your previous videos. I feel that it is one of the few real problems (not FUD) that could cause a significant crash in crypto.
Do you think we should advocate to exchanges that take Tether to delist it? Why do you think regulators have not taken actions against it? It seems to me that the longer it takes to "unmask" this scam, the greater its impact in the future.
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Also, i was wondering...why on cmc it says that total supply is 2500 mln but circulating is 2750 mln? and also how is it possible that the 24h volume is 2575 mln $ when total market cap is 2245 mln $? This probably isn't the biggest concern about tether but it is wierd non the less...
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I listened to your comment on stable coins But I still want to know your comments on NuBits. Please have a look
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Totally agree with the points in this video.
In my opinion it is particularly suspicious that all attempts to prove that Tether is backed by anything till today failed or are completely useless. A coin (which only USP is the stability!) not being able or willed to fully prove its stability seems highly suspicious to me.
Anyway, I don't think stable coins cannot make it in the future. I just believe that there has to be a transparent solution for proving that there are securities backing the coin. I also think that the concept of multi-collateralized coins seems really interesting.
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good info, keep us posted with other things that even look like this.
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So if Tether busts, you know what will happen? People will start to sell BTC and Alts for USDT and wait out the volatility... . I am 100% sure the majority will do this, because those smart enough, dont use Tether.
But the interesting part will be what is going to happen next, if they realize that not BTC is dropping, but their USDT to USD value.
I hope it wont be that big of a deal, as it potentially only removes about 2 Billion Dollars from the market, which isnt that much, if you look at the whole market. However if it takes Bitfinex with it down, that will be another story...
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Well, 2 billion dollars may be more than you think...
https://crypto.bi/tape/blog/market-caps/
https://hackernoon.com/why-market-capitalization-isnt-a-good-metric-for-cryptocurrencies-36a134e074f7
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It is 2 billion not available to buy up the dip, those 2 billion are gone. So yes, it probably will drop deeper than usually and not bounce back too hard. But if it drops deep, it will be bought up by institutional real fiat money anyway and not by some 18 year old crypto kiddie who put his money into Tether.
Smart money doesnt use Tether...
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@cryptovestor thanks for the follow up on the issues with Tether.
Regards, @gold84
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Any thoughts on exchanges trading with USDT/BTC pairing trading at a premium compared to the US dollar like coinbase? It seems in the past it was the opposite.
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USD bekomes pure communism anyway, we will soon have to face to beyond prices area where people accept nonaccept the currencies that fit their style, the US government you are proclamin will then also fade away. like communist russia and you will have a world with thausand different small cryptocurrency empires, corporations etc. side by side, and the currency you accept is the one you trust and are politically and socially affiliated with.
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USD bekomes pure communism anyway, we will soon have to face to beyond prices area where people accept nonaccept the currencies that fit their style, the US government you are proclamin will then also fade away. like communist russia and you will have a world with thausand different small cryptocurrency empires, corporations etc. side by side, and the currency you accept is the one you trust and are politically and socially affiliated with.
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Great video, as usual. I searched your videos and maybe I'm just missing it. But have you given your opinion of Ardor? Or NXT for that matter? I'm curious because I received their airdrop (IGNIS?) sometime over the past few days because I had owned NXT at one point. Traded it a while back, but I was still VERY green and really had no idea what I was doing other than I had made a certain percentage on it. Now that I see the airdrop, I'm looking more into what Ardor is and the concept seems like a good one, but I have no idea (yet) if I'm just being dense or simply WANTING it to be impressive?
At any rate, keep up the good work that you're doing. Your YouTube videos brought me here lol
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I just did something interesting this morning. I looked at tether's market cap, which essentially is the number of tethers, on a logarithmic scale. It is almost exactly flat. Meaning that the growth of tether is a roughly fixed number that has not deviated throughout the year.
The growth is approximately 15000% per year. This means that by the middle of next year, if the growth rate stays roughly the same, that instead of there being 2.3 billion tethers in existence, there will be roughly 1 trillion.
I would guess by this point it would be the largest single cryptocurrency by probably a long margin. Just 15 months folks!
Food for thought... :D
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