What's the Next Verge? My Speculative Gamble

Verge pumped astronomically in December, gaining over 4000% when I recorded this video although having corrected some now given Bitcoin's recent dip. The privacy coin space as a whole has heated up and given this fact, I decided to take a look at the returns of the different coins in the space to see if there were any opportunities and decided to take a bet on NAV Coin.

Before we continue further, I would like to make a disclaimer. This is obviously, by nature, speculative and extremely risky. It is not investment advice and is simply a bet I am making with a small portion of my portfolio. In short, don't be an idiot and follow me blindly, especially given that this particular analysis is NOT fundamental at all. In other words, it's more akin to gambling than investing.

I pulled up 8 different cryptocurrencies to compare the 3 month and 1 month returns. The cryptocurrencies I used to represent the privacy coin space are (by market cap):

1. Dash
2. Monero
3. Zcash
4. Komodo
5. PIVX
6. Zcoin
7. NAV Coin
8. Zencash

At this point, it is relevant to clarify that these choices are only based on how the GENERAL public perceives these cryptocurrencies, meaning that political opinion on what is or isn't a privacy coin does not matter as none of this analysis is fundamental.

Over a 3 month period, using Dash & Monero as sort of the 'index' for privacy coins (it really doesn't matter since they are so close to one another), only two cryptocurrencies have underperformed: Zcash and NAV Coin. While Zcash has underperformed by more and hence has more opportunity to catch up, it is a much larger cryptocurrency and hence less likely to pump.

NAV Coin sits all the way at the bottom of the top 100 list on CoinMarketCap, even slightly lower than where Verge was just earlier this month. Given this, there is plenty of opportunity for it to pump. More importantly, I've been seeing more 'buzz' around NAV Coin given the success of Verge as people compare the two as if fundamentals actually matter. If we see the beginnings of a leg up for NAV, it might be all that is required for 'dumb' money to jump in as they view it as the next Verge.

If we switch to the 1 month returns, however, NAV has outperformed Monero / Dash. There are still two underperformers: Zencash and Zcash. While you could argue for Zencash given its small market cap, it is a top performer over 3 month period (given an earlier pump) and I hear about it much less than NAV, which while anecdotal, tends to be important when it comes to 'pump' coins.

As such, I will be taking a VERY small speculative position in NAV Coin. I want to reiterate this is not fundamental in nature and I am fully willing to lose ALL, not some, of my position. However, I see it as a net positive bet (or I wouldn't take it) so we'll see what happens.

Lastly, if it pumps because of this video, then all I will say is be careful because you're playing with fire. I do not know at this point what affect my channel can have on smaller cryptocurrencies. Altcoin Buzz seems to be able to cover smaller altcoins with limited impact, but his channel is centered on it while mine rarely does.

Be cautious and thank you for watching / reading.