History:
Bitcoin just experienced quite a lengthy 2 month surge without any real pullbacks or corrections on the way up. Even though it was expected that a bullmarket with some pushback, after the 1.5 years bearmarket and the bottom at 3k, was overdue, it was still surprising for it to be quite as violent so fast.
After the highslung HVF pattern failed to make target and was shut down by very violent selling the alarm bells should have defenitely gone off !
current state:
There is fear in the market and rightfully so. No one wants to give away the money gained but everyone knows that a correction right now is highly likely and could go deep, which results in this panic selling price behaviour.
The following pattern H&S is one of the best HVF patterns to trade. Even though it is a reversal pattern and going against the trend reduces probability of successful outcome, in this situation this factor is more than balanced out. why?
The fact that the upside HVF did not make target and that it was invalidated by such violent panic selling is typical for a trend reversal. And as you can see we are setting up now for a continuation downside HVF pattern as a right shoulder. A triggering event of the downside HVF would trigger a H&S and would give a very deep target.
Combine these factors with just having finished 2 months of pure upside, this could be the beginning of a multi-month correction. Maybe the final correction before the next bullmarket, in which case you defenitely want to have as much liquid capital to buy up all the bottoms .
To what comes after the correction is still hard to predict. Any scenario still has very low probability to actually manifest. My best guess, a combination of HVF theory and Bitcoin price history is the following:
Invalidation and possibility of an upside breakout:
Alternatively, If the HVF on the right shoulder breaks out to the upside it could set up for an even bigger upside continuation HVF in which case we could be looking at 10-11k within a few weeks.
