If things were to play out even remotely similar to how they did last year, we could be days away from the start of a major rally.
In fact, it could already be starting.
My post from yesterday talked about how certain months tended to outperform other months and there seemed to be some serious seasonality to cryptocurrency trading.
At least over the last couple of years:
(Source: https://goldstockbull.com/articles/bitcoin-seasonality-chart/)
As you can see May, June, November, and December were serious out-performers compared to other months.
Why is that?
There are some obvious reasons why certain months traditionally perform better than others such as the Chinese Lunar New Year, tax related selling, and then of course Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays all likely playing a role.
However, in May there is another likely catalyst that we are approaching in the next few weeks...
Consensus 2018!
According to the site, Consensus 2018 will feature 250+ speakers from leading industry startups, investors, financial institutions, enterprise tech leaders, and academic and policy groups who are building the foundations of the blockchain and digital currency economy.
Basically, it will feature the who's who of blockchain and cryptocurrency technology.
More about the event can be found here:
https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/
This year they expect to have over 5,000 attendees. Last year they had roughly 2,700.
This chart, that was also posted above, showed the cryptocurrency market cap leading up into the event around this time last year:
(Source: https://twitter.com/cryptomanran/status/991092944244387840)
As you can see, in the days and weeks leading up into the event the market saw a huge increase in prices.
With cryptocurrency being much more mainstream this year and the conference having about double the number of people it had least year, I would not be surprised to see similar price action around the event again this year.
It appears I am not the only one that thinks that way.
Check out this video that was brought to my attention yesterday by @researchgeek:
(Source: @initforthemoney here on steemit)
He is bullish on the next few weeks, to put it mildly.
And guess what, that would also jive perfectly with the seasonally strong period for cryptocurrencies as well.
Steemit and steem also being represented?
Oh and guess who one of the guest speakers will be this year?
Does that face look familiar to anyone on steemit?
(Source: https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/speakers/)
And by the looks of the names of the people next to him, his whole family will be there as well! Scott?! I joke.
It could be a very exciting next few weeks for many of the cryptocurrencies, steem included.
Here's to hoping history repeats!
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
Let’s hope Ned said; Steem going to $20!
PS: gotta love his last name 👍🤓👍
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Wow double the amount of attends = double the amount of price action and price increases ;). Very interesting that it rises over 20% in April and May, likely to tax increases as you say. It seems crypto follows 2-3 months of booms followed by 2-3 months of busts. This year is looking very similar to 2013, 2016, and 2017. Thank you for sharing the historical evidence. I'm so happy Steem and Steemit will be represented this year by Nedd Scott! Honestly with Steem only at a $4 price, hardly a $1B market cap, it doesn't seem unreasonable at all for Steem to hit a $10B market cap or a $40 Steem during a crypto market surge. HODL your SBD/Steem and we'll wait and see what happens!
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I agree. If you look at the market cap that EOS just had recently, I believe it was around $15B. There is no reason why steem couldn't get close to that same market cap. Which would be about 15x the current price, or about a $60 price. I know that sounds high on first glance, but if SMTs are a hit, it wouldn't shock me. That being said, my more conservative price target is around $20 by the end of next year.
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You have very good analysis compared to EOS. Yes, I agree $20 is a conservative estimate. Sometimes I multiply my weekly payouts by $20 to see what I'd make, haha!
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I am subscribed to "in it for the money" and he's the guy where I found out about Consensus 2018 and why he considers that after mid may we can expect a next bull run in crypto.
A smart Danish guy worth your subscription. Just hope his predictions will come true and take some profits out of the market in summer.
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Yea he seems to be a good one to follow. Thanks for the info.
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Hey jr,
Quick question. Initforthemoney said that bitcoin would run up weeks before the event. This event is May 8th the run up happened weeks in April. Do bitcoin still have room to grow this month? Looking from the chart it seems like it will not. Thanks.
Best regards,
91
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The event starts May 14th. Last year steem peaked on the day of the event. If history repeats, we have a week to run still.
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Thanks for the correction May 14th and quick reply. Will keep watching it.
Best regards,
91
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Looks promising... Asger is on steemit https://steemit.com/@initforthemoney ... his excitement is always entertaining!
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Awesome. Thanks for the info, updated the post accordingly.
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Exciting stuff. Crypto news gets better every day. Just need the price to catch up to the upside potential. Is the mainstream ready to join yet?
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I agree with the seasonality statement but all of your reasons for this relate to the US (tax timing, seasonal holidays etc). Crypto is much bigger than just the US market now! Regardless, let’s hope your observations are correct and that we can significantly outperform over the next few months! The launch of EOS could be give a massive impetus!
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The Chinese Lunar New Year is a big non US related event. Also about half of the fiat volume is in US dollars globally which likely means what happens in the US plays a big role.
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An honor can read all your posts @jrcornel in the case of cryptocurrency is a remarkable thing happening in today's global illumination, it shows a new beginning for the world of Cryptoccurency, I see the wave of change as a result Many are Switching to Steem Nowadays, Indeed shock continues but this is not a problem that keeps steem down drastically, I believe a great power continues to be prepared by @Net Scott To create a change in the future Nowadays All Invertor keeps coming to compete in Market Global, and reliable technology continues to be created and this is a very good schedule As you can see May, June, November, and December are serious outside players compared to other months. I strongly believe that will benefit all of us later, thanks @jrcornel has provided a very useful outlook for all steeminials around the world,
We win together
See you on the top
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Well said!
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Thank's my lovely family
We win together
see you on the top
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Thanks for putting that together. I have heard the early year tax selling but hadn’t seen the other months. Consensus as a driver makes sense and I bet people start reading xxx is up ytd and try to pile in in the fall. The interesting one is the summer. Generally that’s a weak time for equities. The low crypto correlation probably comes from the summer months period when crypto dominates!
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Beautiful info. Love your chart on the average monthly growth rates. Hats off to the bull market! 😁
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That is exactly my opinion in this regard!
May and june are going to be golden months, i am not an investor but i am holding my 141 sbd's :p hope fully i will get benefit!
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Get your space suits ready, next stop Moon!
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Will we pause it all before leaving the atmosphere?
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Humor aside I wouldnt be suprised by another dip, even below 5k, but long term new all time highs for sure
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May storm raise the cryptocurrency high into the sky!
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@jrcornel First of al i want to give you thanks for explaining about an important issue. I had few doubt about how did it's moved and why ?
Now i understood all properly, Thanks once again for your valuable information. I will wait to see more analysis and prediction from you.
Have a Good day/night .
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I hope those previous days come back, crypto touching stars.
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We could we sign for this scenario! In July I am on a holiday so I won’t have time to keep track of it!
But like you wrote there are no dangerous days in May and June!
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This seems to be very good. Hope Steem goes to moon, and so does Steem Dollar. Every year the cryptocurrency gets stronger more and more, we're about to see some amazing stuff happen
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Awesome, awesome post.
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Thank you!
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Upcoming weeks are really promising.Im excited to see what will happen.Good luck boys.Let's make some money📈💵💵
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Well thanks for the heads up ,seems like sth interesting is gonna happen and as Ned is gonna be there so sure sounds very great as well ;)
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Hallo sir Nomustha...A smart Danish guy worth your subscription. Just hope his predictions will come true and take some profits out of the market in summer.
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For the video
needs somewhere else to put there liquidity as they sell off and crypto is booming thats why we see so many companies like ibm trying to beat the market with full integration into companies like stellar its going to be massive when it happens and i believe the governments are trying hard to catch it and regulatw it before this happens as the stock markets go bearish except maybe gold and silver and maybe uranium
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Thank you very much at the beginning of Sir@jrcornel, so to post a nice bitcoin. In fact, we have always seen many types of post with bitcoin but we do not get the right news,
It's not always the case, but it's great to see your post giving you the right news that many good thanks for everyone, thank you for sharing such a beautiful post. Present this kind of beautiful post to us in the future. Have a nice day
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I feel like one step ahead of the illuminati or something after watching this video hahaha
Great video.
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Haha, now what are you gonna do with that information?
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but there are way too many eyes on it this time.
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hope this time a new chapter will be written in history,obviously we want better one
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I imagine the catalyst for the increases will be a high number of new partnerships and alliances being announced as the traditional centralized organizations look to enter the market to see how the technology will help them. It will be interesting to see which organizations announce new projects as well.
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Sure looks like it. But there could be also opposite performance from next year. It can rally down with all.
So, be careful..looks to me time is good but uncertainty also have enough space in his area.
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I dont think that Consensus 2018 will be the boom we're expecting because big names in the blockchain space are starting to boycott the event. the price will rise but not as much as we expect @jrcornel
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Great time to start loading up on some more Eth
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will check the event and great post.
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Definitely history will repeat itself. Cryptos are here to stay. I'm already regretting not buying the dip. $350 ethereum and $5 eos look so cheap today. And our beloved steem $1.32.
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