Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)
After another dramatic day of trading, Bitcoin looks to have finally found a short term bottom after briefly breaking our $7888 target price. It managed to continue dropping despite yesterday's bullish divergence on the 30m chart, but has since formed a much stronger bullish divergence on the MACD and RSI on the 1h, hence this bounce.
The bounce was very sharp, reaching back almost to the $9222 support/ resistance. We'll need to keep an eye out for the formation of bearish continuation patterns, such as an ascending wedge or an ascending channel.
I expect this retracement could reach as high as ~$9800 without breaking the bearish hypothesis here, and we'll have to watch for bullish reversal patterns if/when we break downwards.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)
Ethereum also exceeded expectations during this dip, dropping straight through $905 and $870 to reach as low as $731. This is a change from the last few days, where Ethereum has shown a lot more strength than Bitcoin during bearish movement.
This is a sign of panic setting in for the market as a whole and, while I remain bullish on Ethereum in the medium - long term, I would recommend caution with these markets until there is a clear bullish reversal signal.
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)
We can see this weakness very clearly on the ETHBTC ratio, where we have gone back to the old ways of closely following BTCUSD corrections.
In its current state, this is not a market that lines up with my trading strategies, so I will be remaining at the sidelines until some greater stability has been found.
This won't be the case for everyone, such volatility is a day trader or scalper's dream, but as a swing trader this is not where I would be looking to make trades. Remember to always stick to your own trading plan.
Bitcoin Cash
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)
As with yesterday, BCH followed in the trend and dropped straight through support. It is currently in a strong bounce from the historical 0.128 level and the 78.6% retracement, however the bounce is mostly due to BTCUSD's actions in the market.
If we see a retest and rejection of these support levels, then this would make a very attractive level to buy into. But, as with Ethereum, it's best to wait for confirmation before undertaking any positions, as another drop in Bitcoin could bring this even lower.
NEO
(Bitfinex:NEOBTC 4h)
Like the others, Neo followed in the drop. But, notably, saw a much bigger bounce than the other pairs, almost to retesting this week's highs.
As I am repeating ad nauseam - despite this begin a pretty strong move for this pair, Bitcoin is the driving force in the market at the moment, so it is best to wait on the sidelines until Bitcoin has found a bit of a bottom.
Cardano
(Bittrex:ADABTC 4h)
Ada too saw a fairly sharp bounce along with Bitcoin's bounce. I remain relatively bearish here, since there are no support levels to speak of until 3025. Ada is at the mercy of Bitcoin's market movements for the short term at least.
Litecoin
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 4h)
Even LTCBTC managed to temporarily break downwards from its multi-month trend, reaching 0.01329 before seeing a similar retracement to the others.
This could be a sign of a longer term bear market for LTC, as this support zone was been in place since early December and LTC has historically rejected these highs several times.
(Poloniex:LTCBTC Daily)
On the other hand, this could be seen as a huge bull flag formation, which is a bullish formation. In this case, we could see a new huge bull run form for Litecoin, similar to the one during December. We would need to wait for a break of the descending resistance level and a pick up in volume first to confirm that idea, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.
Great post i think ill try to buy some Bit Coin on one of these low dips
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So you're telling me there's a chance?!
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