Daily Crypto Analysis - 3rd Feb - Technical AnalysissteemCreated with Sketch.

in cryptocurrency •  7 years ago 

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)

After its first bounce reaching ~$9100 and a failed retest of $8200, Bitcoin has moved upwards into an ascending channel. This is the first bearish pattern to keep an eye on, but it's top may not reach back to the top of the channel, which would form an ascending wedge instead.
While the test and failed retest of lows looks a lot like a double bottom formation, the much lower volume on the second bounce suggests that the market is not as confident in these levels. While it is possible that volume picks up and we break upwards from the channel, it is looking unlikely at the moment.
The major resistance lines to watch come at ~$10300, $10780 and $11160 (if we reach that high).
If you wish to short, I would recommend waiting for a rejection of the upper resistance, so as to reduce risk.


Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)

Ethereum has followed the exact same pattern of rejected second test and ascending channel. This will likely be the case with most altcoins, as Bitcoin is definitely the driving force in the market at the moment. As with Bitcoin, the volume on the current uptrend is extremely low compared to that of the drop, supporting the bearish outlook. Therefore, we should wait and watch for the completion of the bearish formation.
Since Bitcoin is in control of the crypto space at the moment, it will be a more fruitful endeavour to spend most of your time watching the BTCUSD pair than the ETHUSD pair to ascertain where the market will be heading next.

Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)

After the huge drop on the ratio we are now holding a relatively low volume area around the levels of the previous consolidation zone.
It is possible that we will see similar situation as the 18th to 24th of Jan, where ETHBTC held a fairly tight consolidation range before breaking upwards.
At the moment there are no clear support and resistance levels to back up this idea, so it remains just speculation, but it is a pattern that I will be looking for through next week.


Bitcoin Cash

Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)

BCHBTC is still following BTCUSD closely, with the same dip and rejection pattern, although with a much less defined second bounce. As with ETHBTC, there is the possibility of forming a bit of a consolidation zone here while BTCUSD continues its trend. The most logical place to be watching for this formation is between the 0.1366 and 0.1280 levels. We'll have to wait and see if there are further rejections of these support/ resistance levels to confirm that idea.


NEO

Binance:NEOBTC 4h
(Binance:NEOBTC 4h)

Neo seems to be settling into a bit of a lower volatility consolidation too, around 0.0136. As with the others, we'll have to see how Neo reacts to BTCUSD whichever way it decides to break. Generally, a tight consolidation for altcoins on the BTC ratio at these times is a bullish sign, as it breaks from the norm of following BTCUSD's corrections.


Cardano

Bittrex:ADABTC 4h
(Bittrex:ADABTC 4h)

ADABTC is looking quite strong here, with a huge jump since the dip. However, it is also seeing strong resistance at the 61.8% retracement.
As with everything else, due to its strong correlation with BTCUSD in the recent drop, I would recommend waiting to see how it fairs during Bitcoin's next move before taking any positions.


Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

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Do you really think it will reach 10k in the short term? What are your long term presictions for this year?

A return to $10k would still be within the ascending channel, so it is possible - although Bitcoin isn't looking that strong at the moment, so we may not get that high.

Longer term, I'm bearish on Bitcoin relative to the other Cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, as it just doesn't have the same level of tech behind it. (I'm planning to write a full summary of this soon)
This then begs the question as to where Crypto as a whole will go in the next year, and the answer is that I honestly don't know at the moment.
If we see further drops on BTCUSD through $7888 then that could trigger a longer term bear market which would drag down everything, if not then we will likely remain flat for a while at least.

Coins mentioned in post:

CoinPrice (USD)📈 24h📉 7d
ADACardano0.430$20.39%-30.73%
BTCBitcoin9252.740$6.52%-18.92%
ETHEthereum967.381$7.73%-11.96%
NEONEO122.794$5.07%-11.93%