I am writing this post more as a comment to @cryptographic post: A Big Markdown in Progress?, but because of the size that it took and the fact that it would help more people fighting with FUD right now, I chose to make it a separate article.
I really hope anything but a complete collapse, there are so many things based on Ethereum right now, as EOS (for the moment) and many other ERC-20 tokens. Not to mention that many other coins are traded against Ether and if it lose value, all of them will lose value, this is a reason why everything we see on the charts right now is red. But I am sure that this is just FUD and at one moment it will stop and meet a support. Then I am sure we will see jumps in prices.
If I am taking the graph of the entire cryptocurrencies market cap and I am trying to make an interpolation with how the market should have naturally grew, we can see that there is a big spike that is simply just pump and FOMO:
Just to illustrate the organic (what I like to call natural growth) vs speculative growth, I will leave here an article of @dragosroua, the creator of steem.supply. He has a lot of knowledge about market and economics so he can describe these concepts better than I am.
What are we going to see?
The past evolution of market does not matter that much now, but it tells us a lot of things about what may happen so it still very important! What I believe is that the market will reach a sport right below the green line that shows the natural and intrinsic value of the market, then stabilize a bit there and maybe another FOMO. Why I say that the market will get below the support line is because it has so much inertia right now caused by the FUD that has already spread and that a bunch of people are trying to spread, just as Jason Bloomberg in his forbes article where he says that all cryptocurrencies should be banned.
This is what I think, but I am not a real investment adviser, I hope everybody will make their research and chose their investments carefully.
I think you have a very good chance of being correct with your forecast. A reversion to the mean is as characteristic of price action as anything. An overshoot is not only possible, but very common. In any event, your green line marks the ideal zone for long term entries into crypto, and most certainly the place where no-one should sell. (That of course referring to the averages themselves, or well balanced diversifies portfolios - individual tokens with that same chart pattern always carry the risk of going to zero.)
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Barking up the wrong tree -- Broken bot.
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Oh, thanks! At first I got scared, not understanding what it's happening :))
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You seem like an interesting person, how that I haven't followed you by now? Do you have any samples of code on how you interact with the blockchain? Or some open source bot, I am really curious how you do that. And it makes me more curious since it seems that everybody is able to do this kind of things except me...
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@mack-bot you were flagged by a worthless gang of trolls, so, I gave you an upvote to counteract it! Enjoy!!
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Thank you so much for your reply, I hope to be right and the market to find support pretty soon as it just seems it did. All the market seems to be rising again, I don't know for how much longer, but I hope this time it will be more stable :)
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