Where did my tether go to?

in cryptocurrency •  6 years ago 

I'm baffled a bit that people are not outraged at what obviously reeks of bovine excrement here. I mean, most know that tether, or TUSD as it's normally found on exchanges, has had some dubious beginnings and lifespan. From the complete denial of ownership by Bitfinex on it's early days, to it's mysterious presses who have been speculated to have caused many pumps.

thether.png

coinmarketcap

But, the audits


As far as I know, they never happened, not really. In other words, they had some internal verification, but nothing was ever disclosed publicly, which basically makes them meaningless. On top of that, the firm who was in charge of said activities retired prematurely from the task.

It's important to point out the reasons as to why Tether exists in the first place, and how it was been built. Maybe until just recently we still had plenty of people who believed, naively so, that there are still ways of cashing out to FIAT using Tether, but there are plenty of articles out there removing smoke from these doubts, and as you might guess, it's ugly.

However, what's more important to understand is that it was really built to circumvent regulatory challenges. Plainly said, Tether today exists outside of "law" and hence can't be regulated by american entities or otherwise.

One would imagine that this alone would give cryptocurrency investors enough reasons to stay away from the token, but as with many things on crypto, rationality does not rule.

The magic presses


The analogy of the printing press is very fitting for tether, and honestly the evidence, so to speak is plain for everyone to see. Almost without exception any big rally of BTC has been triggered by the printing press, the sudden introduction of enough tether to blackmail any politician in a short span of time.

The chart that accompanies this publication tells a story that we would be naive to ignore. At first glance we might be too quick to dismiss it, explaining the expanding marketcap with the sudden spike on BTC valuation, but that simplistic explanation is not sufficient to anyone who gives this more intense thought.

Did Tether/Bitfinex secure more backing, more vaulted USDs to emit the Tether to match those spikes? Could they even be able to do that at such short intervals? Is there even a way to know? Questions that as of now, I can't seem to find satisfying answers to and I'm sure there are none.

The mysterious insider?


There has been a very peculiar account roaming on twitter for a while, bitfinexed. Nobody knows who this person, or group of people are, but some of the things they've revealed have turned out to be true in the long run.

Of course, it could be all coincidence, or even simple analysis and logical predictions. After all, it does not take much thinking to cross draw some lines on this whole situation and speculate negatively as to the reasons why things are the way they are.


bitfinexed.png

Curiously enough, even Dr. Doom has found himself an interesting ally in his call for the end. Now, don't misunderstand me, it does not seem that Bitfinex is anti crypto per say, but just someone or someones, who really and emphasis on really dislike Bitfinex and it's controversial product Tether.

If you are someone who likes to dig deep into things of this nature, and possibly catch some canaries inside the coal mine, bitfinexed is an interesting account to be following on the twittersphere.

The recent FUD and a new magic trick


Many articles have been written on this matter already so I won't go much into the details, but it might be enough to say that a new round of fear has made it's rounds. These rumors signaling the end of Tether and Bitfinex the parent company, called into question their liquidity and some banking issues they seem to be having with HSBC.

What's important about this whole ordeal, at least to me, is that the FUD created a spike on BTC, dropped Tether below its peg and shook the markets enough to even spark the introduction of new stable tokens. Entering the ring now is Huobi, Coinbase, Gemini (this one had been in the plans for a long time, but the timing is somewhat convenient), and I'm sure many more will come as well.

One would think that if more people exit their Tether positions, keeping the peg would be difficult to say the least. The downward pressure of sellers would sure make it challenging. So, how can it be done? How can Tether hold it's peg against the wall of red?

How about reducing it's circulating supply, you say? Sure, that seems like a neat trick, but what are the logistics of such a move? In theory, or at least to be economically sound, destroying Tether tokens should be accompanied by the withdrawal of the dollars backing the currency. In other words, if you break the tether itself, the 1 to 1 backing, then the whole "white paper" (note the air quotes) would flap. But, it seems like it's only a handful of people who are even contemplating this problem.

If you notice the chart shared above, what has really been happening is actually a bit comical. The tokens are just being removed from circulation and that's the end of the story. This gives the whole concept of manipulation a whole new meaning, and I for one can't find a single silver lining here.

So what's going to happen?


I don't have to be bitfinexed's best friend to guess and I don't think it's up for debate anymore. There is absolutely no way Tether will last for a long time, it just can't. In truth, the more they keep on pulling these magical moves, the more trust they lose and the more people will exit their long term positions, understandably so.

When it will happen, I'm not entirely sure, but It can't be long. I speculate that the creation of these new stable tokens are the signal many of us have been waiting for, the ending of the gag, so to speak.

Now, I honestly believe that this won't really hurt crypto a whole lot and that those of us who have set our flag on this mound should not worry much. Long term many projects will fail, and those who are acting clumsy, compromising trust in the way, will probably be weeded out sooner than most.

This is not financial advice, it's just an opinion. But, I would never suggest anyone to entertain holding on to Tether, at least not long term. It's obvious there is something in the water....



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The whole point of crypto is to get away from things like USD. At best a stable coin is just a holding coin to maintain consistent value. Any major variations in value should be a huge warning for this type of coin.

good point ethan, and of course I agree.. but there seems to be quite a demand for it these days, they are the hype atm as you know.

I guess it's worth adding one note on your thoughts:
Tether have mostly been adding new supply in batches, lately of 100-250 million $. Maybe that's because of the way Omni works (they just update the new number of tokens, not who holds them), so you may not want to update the supply every time someone deposits 2$. It may be that a similar strategy applies with the reduction of the supply. After all, they would have to buy back the USDT on the market first before they could make it disappear.

There's a valid arbitrage strategy, though, in case cashing out via tether.to actually works. And at least for the Tether guys it probably does:
Buy USDT for $ at 0.98, cash out 1$ per USDT and reduce the supply accordingly. Whether there's enough $ to convert all USDT back, nobody knows.

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree with the many ways Tether is flawed and poisonous. However, I'm trying to understand the options of what may be going on and potentially assign probabilities to them :-)

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ooh, thank you very much for sharing this... I love putting these thoughts out and getting some awesome additions on the comments. I've upvoted you, hopefully to the top so that people get to read this comment.

thanks mate.

Thanks a lot. I love having these discussions, and I usually hope they arise from posts / comments. I also like hearing other people's opinions on that stuff, especially when they're polarizing ;-)

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Maker and Dai all the way. Decentralized stable coins backed by big chains are the way to go

I looked into Maker, looks very interesting... at these points it's hard to keep up with so many amazing ideas out there (among piles of bad ones). I'm going to guess you are hodling some of it yourself.

The reality is that if Tether is truly backed by fiat funds as they say, everything will be fine and we will have improved options with other stablecoin competing for assets. The benefit is that the new players like GUSD, DAI and TUSD are being transparent and using the blockchain to record the transaction making it more trustworthy. This is important as this could help adoption increase by eliminating volatility in cryptocurrencies which could provide more liquidity for every day transactions and make earning a living in crypto more of a reality.

The thing that makes me suspicious of Tether is that I can't see how they earn a profit if they maintain 100% reserves. The front end deal looks great from their perspective - you give them $1 and they give you an electronic token that they print at a very low cost, say $0.0001, to cover the development and operating cost of creating the Tether market. Who wouldn't want that deal?

But what happens if they keep 100% reserves? I think the money they hold only counts as reserves if it is held as liquid, zero risk investments. That should earn only about 1 or 2 % right now. After you figure in inflation and the cost of operating the markets, Tether must be operating at a loss.

Something tells me that they didn't accumulate $1B while they were expecting a loss. So where does the profit come from?

I don't understand their business model at all professor, and like you, its always bothered me. If we can't see how they are making their profits, if we can't deduce it from simple logic, then that can't be a good thing. I mean, I know there are people who are vastly brighter than me, but I've not heard a definite answer on this matter.

I am relieved that Poloniex has its own stablecoin now, USDC. That's where I do most of my trades, but I am sure that in the near future more alternatives will emerge for USDT. However I don't think that it will go extinct too soon. Time will tell though...

I guess so many people have been calling for the end, its almost an ongoing joke atm

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