Let's think of a scenario where this is the start of a correction. If we look at the past bottoms of Jul 16, Sep 15 and Nov 12 on a 1D chart, what would be an equivalent bottom for a correction from where we are today? In terms of timeline, thinking of something like early January, as we came from the $3000 bottom up to $17000 in about three months, so the correction could take about a month. I'm thinking the bottom could be somewhere around approx. $8000-8500.
However, if this were to be the start of a longer correction -- after all, the whole year from April-May onwards has been more or less one bull run -- and the level discussed above didn't hold, what would be the next expected level of support?
Many thanks for keeping up with these posts!
i've thought 8k would be reasonable for some time, but no longer. i think there is just to much hype and interest now . never say never, but if it gets close to 8k, i'm selling some stocks to buy more BTC.
i really don't sell btc just purchase more on dips.
i coud see another test of the 13k range in the next week, if it holds then back up again, if it does not hold then i would look to the low 11 range, and check back here for srezz's call.
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I can feel the hype, too. But then on the other hand that makes me think that the higher the hype, the sharper the peak, and afterwards, the higher the fall.
Looking at the crypto market overall, in the past two corrections we wen't first from the peak of $117B on June 12th down to $62B on July 16th, a drop of 47%. Then from $179B on Sep 2nd down to $99B on Sep 15th, a drop of 45%.
Now we've peaked at $454B on Dec 8th, and... don't see we the correction wouldn't be at least 45% again, could be 50% or more due to how much higher we are proportionately to the previous peaks in such a short amount of time. This could imply a drop to $225-250B, or even lower.
Of course, no-one knows. But curious to hear what you guys think.
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Wall Street makes as much on the way down as on the way up and I'd agree with you. Technically we need to retest $10K from above. BTC is way overbought and I'm sure Wall Street fund managers are of the same view. Once BTC gets sliding down the rest of CCs will follow it.
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