ETH/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

srezz (48) in cryptocurrency • 7 years ago (edited)

There's a lot of ETH reversal talk. However, in terms of Elliott Waves, a reversal would imply the beginning of wave III of (III), - the most explosive thrust up with a clear 5 wave internal structure. And that is what I have difficulty with. Even if ETH goes up to $360-380 (which is quite possible given the velocity of the first leg up and provided it will close above $355 on the daily basis), but without a clear 5 wave internal structure, it is still going to be wave B wich will be followed by a down move in wave C, but with much higher downfall targets than presented below.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/7372830/ethusd-d1-distel-enterprises-co

If the high of the last move up stays unchallenged though, then the wave B of II is complete and based on this view here is the likely wave count and its targets of the Wave C of II. Personally, I'm leaning to 2 Fibonacci congestion zones:

1). @$81 - 83
2). @$47 - 50
https://ibb.co/g03bjk
ETH
https://ibb.co/cTWqS5

Finally, by implication there's the 3d scenario, - that is the market goes up and eventually produces 5 waves internal structure. If this is to happen then the low of correction is already in and presented wave count is invalid.

PS. All targets are based on the xBTCe data feed. More liquid exchanges will have them $7-15 higher.

cryptocurrency

7 years ago by srezz (48)

$1.03

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orhanbne (25) · 7 years ago

Dear Sreez,
The financial terminology plus level of english makes difficult to interpret your important articles. Is it possible to use little bit more plain English to help followers like me?

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16 votes

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srezz (48) · 7 years ago (edited)

In simple terms even if ETH goes to up to $360-380 in my view it does not mean that the correction is over and I expect another wave down. If it goes down from where it is now the high probability targets are $81 - 83 or even as low as $47-50.

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dzonson62 (25) · 7 years ago

Is it possible that ETH will go down without even going up?

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1 vote

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mikedc (25) · 7 years ago

The man said "If it goes down from where it is now the high probability targets are $81 - 83 or even as low as $47-50."

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6 votes

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diehazard (25) · 7 years ago

Thank you @mikedc for your answer.. you truly answered him deep from my heart

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2 votes

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fernx (25) · 7 years ago (edited)

@srezz Really? That low? I am not questioning you, but that seems a bit extreme. Are you thinking at the margin? Thoughts? I am new to this world but do enjoy and respect your articles. Thanks for your hard work.

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1 vote

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prodeoth (25) · 7 years ago

thanx srezz with the cool info will monitor it closely

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1 vote

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bzhuk (25) · 7 years ago

thanks comrad! im with you right from the crptocompare

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black0678 (25) · 7 years ago

so we`re up once again and going down hard? or it going down now?

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bsbeers (31) · 7 years ago

That is unknown. What is being said is that if it to continues going up to the +300 range, it will most likely come back down to a sub 200 range. But is it does not continue its upward momentum then the down projection is sub 100

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1 vote

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mxhunter (30) · 7 years ago

Thanks dude finally got approved

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sebastiano (25) · 7 years ago

exactly my thought.

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vijpanchal73 (25) · 7 years ago

Appreciated Srezz..

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srezz (48) · 7 years ago

I hope everybody understands that by implication there's the 3d scenario, - that is the market goes up and eventually produces 5 internal structure. If this is to happen then the low of correction is already in.

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9 votes

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atulsai434 (25) · 7 years ago

Thanks @srezz for the analysis. I am new to this and as I started following you. You cam to steemit. They took a while to let me in.

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2 votes

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atulsai434 (25) · 7 years ago

@srezz its been more than 48hrs ETH is in range $210-235. Do you have any insight is this is going to lower from current range or move forward towards 300?

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1 vote

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srezz (48) · 7 years ago

Before the market shows its hand either way there's nothing to tell.

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1 vote

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stravsky (25) · 7 years ago (edited)

Hi Srezz,
Thanks a lot for your latest update. Just to make sure I understand correctly, are you saying that ETH will test last high before heading lower to congestion zones ?

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1 vote

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stravsky (25) · 7 years ago

Thanks, looks like you just answered my question above!

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krepno (25) · 7 years ago

Finally they let me in!
Thanks for all the info srezz!
Learning a lot these days and love the way you explain the choices we can make! Keep up the good work!

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1 vote

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sixshot (30) · 7 years ago

Just got verified, SGsix here, thanks for the analysis srezz

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1 vote

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raymondkrish (25) · 7 years ago

Thanks for the TA!!

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danishraja (25) · 7 years ago

Hello Srezz, always appreciate your analysis. Eth has started moving now. Do you see any change at the moment that where it is heading anticipatively?

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daan21 (25) · 7 years ago

Finally i'am in 2. Thanks

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sagan (30) · 7 years ago (edited)

@srezz - Do you have access to order book data from any of the exchange sites? I use Gemini for trading ETH and BTC and noticed that someone had a placed a $4M order for ETH at $190 the other day when it last bottomed there. Only a small potion of the order filled (during the height of ETH volume), but it sure seemed to send a clear signal that the price would hold there.

If you can access historical orders, it would be interesting to see if similar orders were placed on other exchanges. Regardless, seeing that made me feel relatively confident that $190 would be a pretty strong bottom.