A Manipulated Market Tells Us Nothing

People put a lot of stock in the price of tokens. While this makes sense, it also carries a degree of risk. It is easy to get led astray.

The problem with the price of cryptocurrencies is the market is completely manipulated. Bitcoin, which comprises the biggest part of the total marketcap, is being manipulated at every turn. Thus, we are not looking at something that is giving any indication of valuation.

Instead, the pricing of tokens is nothing more than a casino game. The powers that can move the markets are doing so as they see fit. Up or down is based upon a whim, nothing more.

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This affects all tokens since, no matter how hard we try to break it, most tokens are tied to the movements of BTC. There are moments when things diverge but it is only temporary. It seems the reconnecting takes place on the downward slides.

A $200B marketcap is nothing for the big money players to influence.

Two Deustche Bank traders caused a heap of trouble when it was learned they manipulated a $5.3T forex market. People who follow gold long have claim that $8T market was manipulated (with some evidence that is the case).

We now have speculation that Bakkt was established to pop the bubble in Bitcoin and take cryptocurrencies down. The paper Wall Street creates can be very powerful.

Hence, marketcap and pricing tells us little. If the markets are manipulated, the information they provide is not accurate. It only tells us what games are being played and where the controlling entities want things to go.

For this reason, it is best to look for other metrics as the barometer of what is actually taking place. Ultimately, what these metrics represent is what will eventually lead an altering of the ranking. I tend to focus upon the development, wallets counts, and token distribution as more telling than hype or price action.

Obviously, this is not a popular view for many since most lack patience. The conversion of the Internet is not an overnight process. Even if the tokens were pumped, which I am sure they will be, that will not make the path to what is being developed any easier. There are still pieces that need to be put in place before widespread advancement is made.

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This entire industry requires a long-term view. Prices are going to go up and they will head down. The divergence from Bitcoin will happen by those blockchains that offer something more than just hype. Steem appears to be one of them. In fact, there is no hype surrounding Steem. Instead, there is development that is going to offer uses to people in the future. That is radically different from 95% of the blockhains out there.

Everyone is upset at the recent pricing action. A few of the Telegram groups I follow reveal the same complaints. The Bitshares people are convinced that chain is dead as the price heads below 2 cents. EOS has all kinds of problems, magnified as the price heads towards $2.50. We all know $7,000 Bitcoin verifies Peter Schiff's call of $1,000 BTC.

It is difficult to hang in when prices are dropping like a rock but understanding we are viewing a manipulated market makes it a bit easier to take. The money will pump it at some point, that is a part of the game. We just need to be patient enough to wait around for it to happen.

In the meantime, it is best to not put too much stock into it. Determining quality projects that are developing and upgrading is the most important. There are a lot with significant promise that operate outside the cycle of hype. They, instead, are showing a consistent path of upward development which, eventually will show up in the pricing.

If one needs a mental picture to use, look at Splinterlands. That project focused upon the core development of the game along with associated pieces that were needed. From my understanding, the mobile app is the last piece on that list to be implemented. After that, the focus can turn to increasing the number of users and other aspects of the players' experience.

This did not happen overnight. It took a lot of effort to go from MVP to the point they are at now. There is a reason why it is one of the leading DApps in the entire blockchain realm.

Look for other projects that mirror this. There is a good chance, over time, they will be the winners.

The original iteration of the Internet to years to create. We are witnessing the same thing with this one.

Also, it is best to not look to markets to verify one's decision. Do the analysis, research what is taking place, and make the moves with confidence.

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