Since its inception, Bitcoin has seen its price move in a 4-year cycle. Each halving marks the end and then the beginning of a new market cycle for the Bitcoin price. Typically, you have between an 18- and 24-month Bull Market after the Bitcoin Halving, before a two-year Bear Market.
By the end of 2021, many imagined the end of this 4-year market cycle for the Bitcoin price with the assumption of a Bitcoin super cycle. What has been happening since early 2022 put an end to that assumption. We are finally in the middle of a Bear Market, or at least a painful market. This has at least two positive aspects, but many are having a hard time grasping that right now.
We will never know if the Bitcoin super cycle could have happened without the war in Ukraine, which added absolute uncertainty to the markets, sounding the death knell for assets that are considered risky by the general public.
I'm talking about perception here because, to me, Bitcoin is not risk-on. On the contrary, Bitcoin gives you incredible guarantees in a world that is more uncertain than ever. But that's my perception. The perception of someone who understands why Bitcoin exists. That of someone who understands that Bitcoin is a unit of wealth that is not tied to any government or central bank.
Meanwhile, during the previous Bear Market, we saw 7 distinct phases. Remembering these different phases will help you see more clearly the current situation for the Bitcoin market and give you some perspective on what to expect emotionally in the coming months.
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