Bitcoin Update: Reaching a Few Critical Points

Bitcoin has shown some strength over the last 15 hours. Both the bullish and bearish scenario discussed yesterday are still in play. Regardless of what you might hear, there are NO definitive signs telling us which direction bitcoin is heading over the next few days. However, there are some key areas to watch. Let's start with the big picture.

I've been pointing out 4 key descending resistance lines, and 1 ascending support line we should keep an eye on.

Zooming in, we can see it's approaching the apex of the first resistance and support line. This will be a real test for bitcoin, as either the support or resistance is going to fail.

The 4 hour chart shows the 8, 21 and 55 day EMA being squeezed together. When this happens, it usually doesn't last long. This often happens just prior to a breakout, either up or down.

I've been pointing out the 4 hour MACD being squeezed tighter and tighter over the last month. It's nearing the apex, which also may indicate a major move up or down.

The 4 hour MACD also looks rather neutral at the moment. I can't remember the last time I saw the MACD line, and Signal line, pointing nearly sideways while stopped right in the center of the histogram.

The 4 hour chart also shows bitcoin directly in the center of the bollinger bands. Another perfectly neutral indication.

The 1 day MACD is still oversold, and does look like it's wanting to rise.

The 1 hour RSI has established a clear descending resistance line. If bitcoin can break above this resistance, it'd be a very bullish sign.

Now that we know what to keep an eye on, let's review the 2 possible paths bitcoin may take...

My bullish count has bitcoin currently beginning wave 3, of 5.

Zooming in, you can see wave 2 bounced nicely off the 0.618 fib level (golden ratio). It looks almost text book, with only a wick touching the 0.618 fib. Elliot wave says wave 3 is often the longest, and strongest of the 5 waves. Due to this, and the strong bounce off the golden ratio, I'm targeting greater than the 1.0 fib.
In a bull market, I'd target the 1.618 fib level. Due to the uncertainty, and lack of volume, I'm targeting right between the 1.0 and 1.618 fib levels (approx $8,300).

My bearish count has bitcoin in wave 5, of 5 waves down. I've highlighted the sub-waves in yellow. If bitcoin can penetrate the strong support at $6,815, the target for wave 5 would be $5,972.

It should be an interesting next few days for bitcoin, and the entire market. As I've been saying, unless you're a skilled trader, I'd sit on the sidelines until we have a better idea which path bitcoin may take.

BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.

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Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Please always do your own research and invest responsibly. Technical analysis is simply a guide. It doesn’t predict the future. Anyone that claims they know exactly what’s going to happen is foolish, lying or both. Technical Analysis should only be used as a tool to help make better decisions. If you enter a trade, I recommend having a stop loss and sticking to it. You will loose at times. The key is to have more wins than losses. With that in mind, I wish you great success.

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