Good morning my friends. It's been about a week since my last 'post'. Nothing unexpected has happened.
We have spoken for many weeks about the coming major decline in the US dollar. Tom Fitzpatrick of Citi-bank, a highly regarded analyst brings us these two charts today: the dollar and the Euro.
We have spoken and put up charts of the super bullish COT positions. Commercials are net long, speculators are net short. We are going much higher. I felt it begins in September. Are we now on the way? I still fully expect 1400 gold not far out but maybe now early 2019. Silver? 20-21. Then we go substantially higher for the next several years.
And now to Bitcoin. Are we getting tired of this action? It could be worse!
See the chart. And BTC could not punch through the 7000 area recently. We suggested some problems there. And we expected good support near 6000. (The upper and lower Bollinger Bands).
Our problem remains SENTIMENT. the last time we visited close to 6000 we had a nice improvement in sentiment. Bears jumped aboard and we saw an increase in shorts, but even then 26%! At present we are at 21 percent and somewhat alarming. I don't expect this 'bounce' to materialized. Does that mean we break down to the 5,000's. WE may well have to.
There is a worth reading article recently on www.321gold. It is from Sept. 10th by Wold Street. Find and and read it.
While I feel higher prices lie ahead, it does not happen with the degree of bulls out there. Frankly it is a bit surprising.
I wish I was as confident in the crypto market. While I've since January called the moves accurately I feel it is the long term I truly wish I had a better handle on. And I welcome your comments particularly on the cryptos.
The Dow Jones is back above 26,000 at 26,140. Again, SENTIMENT is bullish. It takes nothing for fear to set in this market. I just wish BTC did the same. It has glimpses and I call them and the market resonds!! It just does not hold. The Dow will go to new highs before it truly rolls over later this year or '19 without a doubt.
Thanks for your support and your comments. I truly welcome them. Where do you think BTC goes long term? How about Steem?
I believe we are going to test $5200 for BTC and $0.50 for STEEM.
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frankly, that is my "gut" feeling..I was hoping bigtime for enough support at 6000.
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Great work there @yankee-statman, my biais is that Bitcoin will remain over $6000 for the time being until we hear from SEC regarding the ETF. $6000 has proved a solid floor on 5 different occasions and volume profile shows a real lack of auction at lower prices.
So here's my two cents :)
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thank you!! and thanks for you input..I'm in agreement..
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I think cryptocurrencies will begin to trade more uncorralated to each other towards the end of the years as winners and losers are distinguished. Bitcoin has held its price due being seen as the benchmark and should help over time. However, I think that the more times $6,000 is tested, the higher the probability that it will fail and go lower.
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You may well be right..my concern? this last test was met with "little pessimism"..not good. and thanks as always.
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Nice analysis @yankee-statman
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thank you..and I appreciate your support.
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That 123gold article made a good point. Albeit the writer may seem a little negatively biased towards crypto.
I am wondering what a good way to determine wether BTC hitting the 6k support multiple times is either strengthening or weakening it. I'm not sure I believe BTCs current support is weakening yet.
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You are astute and always appreciate your comment....
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Hi Statman! Thanks for posting your write up it always gives me great clarity on the markets and it is definitely appreciated. My thoughts on btc long term is positive. Every historical bear market low in btc has been higher than the previous bull market high and every bull market high has been much higher than the previous. This is very constructive and in my opinion constitutes a secular bull market. My analysis is also that there is a positive feed back loop brewing between price and volume. The idea that most people value btc by a multiple of volume makes it an even greater candidate for this paradigm. Higher prices will create more volume (or is it more volume creating higher prices?) and this feedback loop will justify even higher prices and so on and on the loop goes until money drys up.
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thank you my friend and your input is valued greawtly!
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Wow Statman, you've got some great followers and comments, and you deserve to be front page steemit with analysis like this. Thank you for sharing your insights and knowledge as not only is it incredibly useful for us investors, it's second to none! Great work!
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That is so kind of you TP..and greatly, greatly appreciated.
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After a hair raising week on cryptos, I will continue waiting for an up movement but I think it will take some time to happen.
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agree...and thanks
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It does look like the DOW will keep on going up. Only a major event will bring this down.
As far as gold it seems to be going slightly down. I am very tempted to take some profits on some gold mining stocks and putting it into some marijuana stocks in the short term as I think there is some more pop coming. Probably most will disagree and say it is better to take profits on marijuana and putting into gold.
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your opinion always welcome! We may have some more weakness in gold..but we are very, very close now...in my opinion, of course.
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