Fanduel NFL Week 3: QBs to Target

PO = Projected Ownership % based on Thu-Mon, 16 games
Only the highest PO players are listed.

Chalk
Cam Newton - $8100, 4.21% PO

• Tom Brady has the highest PO this week at 16.96%, but based on this matchup I think Newtons PO is inaccurately dramatically low. The Saints defense has allowed opposing QBs (Sam Bradford, Tom Brady) to average a few stunning stats so far this year:
  Pass Yards/G: 396.5, Pass TDs/G: 3.0, Completion %: 80.3, FPPG Allowed: 28.2
  In his career, Newton has 26.85 FPPG vs New Orleans. Newton hasn't looked good this year and this will be his easiest defense he's faced this year. The matchups don't get any better than this.

Pivot
Matt Stafford - $7900, 2.96% PO

• Stafford led Week 1 in fantasy pts for QBs and he's got another shot to do it this week against the Falcons. The game has the 2nd highest OVER/UNDER and this is the season opener at home for the Lions.

Fade
Phillip Rivers - $7500, 5.11% PO

• With a healthy Keenan Allen at his disposal, River's could have a chance to tear up the Chief's secondary. Safety Eric Berry is out for the year and the Chiefs secondary gave up a lot of yardage to the Eagles in Week 2. Why fade him though? Rivers career average is 12.08 FPPG vs KC but it's been 18.01 overall the past 2 years. I'll roll with history on this one and for his price, it would be best to avoid him at all costs this week.

Contrarian
Trevor Siemian - $7400

• Buffalo's defense hasn't been a fantasy stalwart this season but they're doing their job in the real world. QBs are averaging only 207.5 pass yards a game and 11.7 pts. Last week they also sacked Cam Newton 6 times and put him on the ground an additional 7 times. The most shocking stat? They haven't given up a passing TD yet. Enter Trevor Siemian. I'm not saying Siemian is a better QB than Cam Newton but he probably has a better chance due to having a good offensive team. With nearly identical FPPG showings in two weeks (23.66 and 23.64) I feel as though he can overcome this defense. He still has arguably the best WR duo in the league at his disposal and he's made sure his chemistry with them is still going strong by distributing roughly equal targets to both. Plus a multi-TD game to Emmanuel Sanders is something to build off of.

GPP
DeShaun Watson - $7000 - 4.03%

• The rookie has a sensational matchup ahead of him with the New England Patriots and their QB friendly defense. Through two weeks QBs are averaging 362 pass yards, 3 TDs and 26.6 FPPG. With only one start this season, Watson of course hasn't put up anything near these numbers due to lack of experience in his career, but this is his chance to make a defining name for himself. On top of that, New England's high octane offense will put a lot of pressure for the Texans to score points. With the potential to pull off 25+ pts in this matchup at the price of $7000, his ceiling is high and he is a must start in a GPP format.

Sleeper
Jay Cutler - $7400

• The Jets have allowed 5 passing TDs this season and 3 of them were to Michael Crabtree. I'm not sure if Cutler has a red zone threat equal of Crabtree's caliber but best bet is WR Jarvis Landry. Landry has 6 red zone targets in the past 3 games, given 2 of those games didn't involve Cutler as the QB.

Bargain
DeShone Kizer - $6900

• Kizer can arguably fall into the GPP section this week, but he's playing a slightly tougher defense this week in the Colts compared to Watson's matchup. The Colts are allowing opposing QBs to average 325 YPG which is the 3rd most passing yards this season and that is what I'm targeting for this matchup. Due to injuries to WR Brandon Coleman and FA WR addition Kenny Britt so far being a bust, WR Rashard Higgins exploded for an 11 target, 7 catch, 95 yd game. RB Duke Johnson also played 92% of the backfield snaps when he didn't have a carry in Week 1, recording 80 yds on 7 touches. With these players stepping up when needed, the Kizer/Higgins/Johnson connection could catch fire. Kizer temporarily left last weeks game with migraines and didn't get to build a full stat line, if he plays the whole game this week it could be very exciting.