The risk of extreme heat is a rising threat to fast-growing cities around the world, according to a new study published this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
As more people move to cities and the climate warms, extreme heat could harm and kill more people, reduce worker productivity and hurt economies, the study says. The urban poor are most at risk.
The study, which assessed more than 13,000 cities from 1983 to 2016, found that global extreme heat exposure increased nearly 200 percent over that time period, a result of population growth, climate change and the fact that city infrastructure absorbs more heat. Nearly a quarter of the world’s population is in areas where extreme heat exposure is rising, the study says.
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Researchers have lacked a complete picture of heat’s impacts because some fast-developing parts of the world don’t have reliable weather station data, and climate models used to estimate temperatures tend to gloss over urban hot spots.
The study took a novel approach and used satellite data to measure heat worldwide, giving researchers a sharper global view of the problem. The analysis reveals that many people flocking to cities in rapidly urbanizing areas such as southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are coming to places that are increasingly vulnerable to soaring temperatures and high humidity.
“Population growth isn’t inherently the problem, much less urbanization,” said Cascade Tuholske, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network and the lead author of the PNAS paper. “It’s the lack of planning and lack of investment in these rapidly urbanizing areas — but that can change.”
A separate report published Wednesday on climate change’s health effects suggests the problem is intensifying and inequities between rich and poor countries are growing.
The Lancet Countdown, a yearly assessment of health risks from climate, found that children and people 65 and older have seen a steady increase in exposure to heat waves over the last decade. Over the past 30 years, countries with low and medium levels of development have seen the largest increases in vulnerability to heat, which was made worse because many of these communities lacked access to air conditioning, cooling and urban green spaces.
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