America's Demographic and Economic Doom-Loop Is Well Underway

From 2007 through 2018, births in the US have declined by 470 thousand on an annual basis, or an 11% decline. The US fertility rate has likewise cracked lower, from 2.12 births to 1.72, an 18% decline (2.1 births over a females childbearing years is considered zero growth). This has resulted in 4.5 million fewer net births in the US since 2007 than the Census had estimated in 2000 and again in 2008. This is over an entire years worth of births that never took place.

The reason for fast declining birthrates since 2007 in the US and among most nations globally seems to be the current ZIRP and low interest rates and Quantitative Easing programs which have the effect of inflating asset prices. The majority of assets are held by large institutions and post child bearing age populations. The flow through of these policies are asset prices rising significantly faster than incomes. For example, non-discretionary items like homes, rent, education, healthcare, insurance, childcare, etc. are skyrocketing versus wages.

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