Kubera made a video about DeepOnion’s volume, and Vaas wrote a scolding post at bitcointalk, and this intrigued me to do some analysis to show that trading volume doesn’t show the whole picture. I wanted to do a volume analysis for a while, but being so occupied I didn’t get the chance. Now, 38 weeks have passed, and 38 airdrops are successfully distributed (even when some envious souls tried to disrupt it). This should provide more data for better analysis.
To start, here is the estimated number of available $ONION at exchanges (based on coinmarketcap statistics). As of 11 April 2018, 00:00 UTC, only 138,000 $ONION available at exchanges, or 1.07% is available at 3 exchanges out of 12.8 million circulating $ONION. Those who believe in the project are hodling for good. I wanted to have a better look at the trading volume of DeepOnion to see if there are any patterns:
Full resolution link (click here)
As soon as the 90% hold rule was negated (I think week 21, early December), many started dumping their $ONION however, the price started to rise after that, which is a weird thing. I can think of bitcoin’s price surging as the cause. Yet, when Bitcoin stumbled, DeepOnion value showed a long downward curve with strong resistance until it stabilized around 0.00022 BTC. On week 25, the airdrop started seeing +100 users every week. As Bitcoin stumbled in January and February, the graph above shows obvious weak hand purging (4 transparent weeks) with fewer dumpers till week 38. Those holding now are either waiting for a good price to sell, or they are true believers. This is exactly what Vaas said.
$ONION is already becoming a rare privacy coin and when DeepSend is activated, the price should increase due to demand. I believe the price is low because of the airdrop distribution of free coins for to the public, once it is over, the coin shall reveal its potential. After 40 successful airdrops, no one can tell what will happen, but it seems that the project will achieve legendary success.