If you asked me a year or two ago, I wouldn't have thought the Democrats had a chance at holding the Senate this cycle. Map is utterly brutal. But they could pull it off.
The polling is looking pretty good so far.
Brown and Tester are holding their own in Ohio and Montana. Gallego and Rosen have had stellar polling so far as well.
Without Manchin, the prospects of getting 51 seats are pretty low. The only real routes are through Florida and Texas and neither seem likely. So Biden needs to win reelection to maintain the Senate tiebreaker.
One plus side of Trump is that he's completely ruining down ballot races by stealing all the RNC fundraising. I just hope Biden can pull it off as Dems are looking pretty good in a bunch of races.