The US dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, as we have more of a “risk off” attitude around the world. That being said, the market is likely to see a stretch towards the ¥102 level, perhaps even down to the ¥101 level. Rallies at this point in time should be sold, and I would be very interested in selling somewhere closer to the ¥105 level, perhaps even the ¥106 level. I like the idea of shorting signs of exhaustion on these rallies from short-term time frames, so with that being the case it is very likely that we will find trades multiple times. With that being the case, I am simply going to be patient and take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves.
The 50 day EMA is now the “hard ceiling” which is just above the ¥106 level, and as we continue to see the moving average slope lower, and therefore offers a lot of negativity for technical traders as well. The Japanese yen is considered to be the “ultimate safety currency”, and therefore people will continue to look towards it. With this being the case, I have no interest in buying this pair, unless of course something changes drastically. That being the case, I would be very cautious about looking for buying opportunities and will be basing it upon some type of daily close that has me thinking much more positively. I do not like the idea of trying to fight what is obviously a very negative move.