So I posed this rhetorical question on Facebook yesterday:
Image source: pixabay.com, License: Public Domain, CC0
Image source: pixabay.com, License: Public Domain, CC0Q: If you have decided that cryptocurrency is some sort of voodoo investment, what would it take to change your mind? How high does the market have to go, and for how long does it have to stay there, before you'll conclude that those folks might be on to something? What would it take until it's no longer a 'flash in the pan?'
When thinking about your answer, consider that today's $600 billion cryptocurrency market cap started at 0 almost 9 years ago, and has grown steadily since then. Also remember that the technology finds its roots in cypherpunk imaginings from the 1990s and even before.
To be fair, though, it occurs to me that I should also ask myself the same question from the opposite perspective.
Q: What would it take to change my mind about block chain? How low would the market have to go, and for how long, before I conclude that investing in cryptocurrency is chasing rainbows?
My answer, to put a stake in the ground, is that the entire market would have to drop by the same percentage as it did after the Mt. Gox crash in 2014 - call it 80% in a year, and it would have to stay at that low level for a period of 3-5 years (more 5 than 3, I think).
Aggregate Cryptocurrency Market Cap - Two Years after the Mt. Gox collapse.
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through Dec 31, 2015
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through Dec 31, 2015Aggregate Cryptocurrency Market Cap - Four Years after the Mt. Gox collapse.
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through present.
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through present.
For discussion: No matter which perspective you are starting from, what would it take to change your mind about block chain?
I'd be curious to hear what sort of answers you received on Facebook. I've really only been involved in the cryptosphere since early June. But when I look at bitcoin / the blockchain it has shown efficacy over a long period of time. And currently, well it's just showing off for us and all the world. Not really sure why people think it's not worth at least looking into at this point, other than close mindedness and fiat is all they know...
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Unfortunately, my Facebook comment didn't get any responses.
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Not all that surprising. :/
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I worked for a company in the 80s where the CEO said something about not falling victim to "Not invented here syndrome." Once you have a name for it, it's amazing how often you see that mindset.
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Yeah it's everywhere!
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Most people probably need the approval of the government they all despise. I can understand however the reluctance of people, tbh there arent a lot of cryptos actively being used and i think that will be a huge trigger for people to really take it serious. For me however i would agree with your answer, but even in an extreme case like that, i wouldnt give up hope as the technology behind it is too good to overlook.
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That's a good point. Something that @dan said in one of his posts or comments a while back resonates with me. It was something along the lines that he has never seen a cryptocurrency with an active development team go completely to zero.
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Exactly, the point when cryptos die is when the developers stop caring and give up! And honestly there are soo many passionate teams around that i doubt this will ever happen.
I don't know if BTC itself has the passion, but honestly BTC has nearly done its job and its now up to the altcoins to claim the spotlight for themselves and so we can really start making progress.
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I agree that btc will has "nearly done it's job" at this point
I personally have some pretty high hopes for litecoin. And @remlaps comment regarding dev teams - exactly! The tech behind it really pushes things forward. I received 100 dollars fiat in the mail the other day for a gift and really started thinking about how Much that paper was really worth... Not much if anything. Why people still have faith in money that isn't backed is beyond me in a country that's how far in debt? It's absurd.
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