• Doctor Strange 2 comes out on May 4th.
• Thor 4 comes out on July 8th.
• Black Panther 2 comes on on November 11th.

Marvel has three movies coming out this year, which are all sequels to popular properties, but could be a pretty big way to figure out the future of theaters post COVID.

Marvel in 2021 was a mixed bag, with four movies coming out.

Black Widow which made 380 million and around 150 million on Disney+.
Budget was 200 million.

Shang Chi which made 432 million.
Budget was 175 million.

The Eternals made 402 million.
Budget was 200 million.

Spider-Man No Way Home made 1.9 billion.
Budget was 200 million.

These seem like big numbers, but the only one visibly profitable was Spider-Man and due to not having to have ticket splits with theaters on the Disney+ earnings, Black Widow may have been profitable.

The Eternals/Shang Chi however likely lost money, due to 175m/200m in budget, 100m in marketing and 40% ticket split in the US, with it being anywhere from 40-80% international.

This makes it likely both films lost anywhere from 25-75 million depending on the percentage which was foreign v domestic.

This isn’t anything close to Marvel before COVID, where 2019 was the biggest year in the studio’s history.

• Captain Marvel made 1.1 billion.
• Avengers Endgame made 2.8 billion.
• Spider-Man Far From Home made 1.1 billion.

This drop had a few noticeable factors from 2019 to 2021.

One, the COVID issue.

42 billion was global box office revenue in 2019.
11 billion was global box office revenue in 2020.
21 billion was global box office revenue in 2021.

Even in a mostly post COVID economy, the box office was only half of 2019.

Which releases were a factor in that, where 2019 had 793 releases, versus 403 US movies released in 2021.

This makes it a big factor for why Marvel made less money.

Second was China.

Marvel for the first time was effectively banned in China, where not a single movie made it through China’s review process and it was illegal to distribute or market them there.

Which was sad seeing how Eternals was the first Marvel film directed by a woman from China and Shang Chi had a largely Chinese cast.

To get an idea of the impact of the ban, Spider-Man Far From Home made 199 million in China, which was about 18% of total earnings.

If Spider-Man No Way Home had that extra boost on the 1.9 billion it made without China, it would have made about 2.4 billion instead.

For the other movies, the bans likely cost them about 75-100 million each.

Third and biggest factor, the properties themselves weren’t as prime.

Shang Chi and Eternals were almost unheard of, where even other smaller properties like Black Panther, Captain Marvel and Antman looked like Superman in comparison.

The two films which lost money both were lower name ID and Black Widow, had a sort of mixed interest going in, where many thought she was a side character.

The film which had a huge name ID was Spider-Man and that ended up one of Marvel’s biggest movies ever.

Which makes 2022 the big question.

Doctor Strange made 678 million in 2016.
Thor Ragnarok made 854 million in 2017.
Black Panther made 1.3 billion in 2018.

This makes it so Marvel would to justify they are not in a decline need to make about 2.8 billion globally in theaters to show they are back.

Which is a challenge.

They have four shows coming out on Disney+.
They have a lot of fans arguing that Endgame was the franchise’s conclusion.
They have some people unhappy with Eternals and Black Widow, arguing quality has dropped.

2.8 billion this year is the test if the franchise still has its strength back, or 2.4-2.5 billion, factoring in a COVID loss.

It’s a bit of challenge, but interested to see if they survive.