Black Widow has made 351 million in theaters.
175 million in America
176 million international
Theaters take 50% in America, meaning Disney got 87.5 million from the US market.
International release takes 70%, meaning Disney only got 52.8 million on the 176 million made.
Total earnings are 140 million.
The budget was 200 million for Black Widow and that’s before marketing.
Marketing budget isn’t clear, but to get an idea, Spider-Man Far From Home spent 288 million on marketing and Avengers Endgame was 200 million.
Black Widow was likely less, but let’s just be conservative and say it was 100 million.
That’d mean the movie had a 300 million dollar cost to launch.
With the earnings being about 50/50 on domestic/international and international taking 70%, Black Widow to draw a break even point would need to make 800 million dollars.
Black Widow has been out for a little over a month and the odds of it making an additional 450 million are pretty much zero.
The good news for Disney is Disney+ charging a premium to see Black Widow.
Disney made 60 million opening weekend off of that.
That was about 43% of the 140 million they made opening weekend.
Disney got to keep 100% of Disney+ earnings and had no actual ticket split with theaters.
Disney hasn’t released how much they’ve earned off Disney+ for Black Widow post opening weekend, but let’s just say it kept up with box office earnings at 43%.
That’d be 151 million.
If it was half that, it’d be 75.5 million.
That revenue added to the 140 million made post theater cuts actually makes Black Widow likely profitable. Not even factoring in things such as costume sales and merchandise which will happen this Halloween.
Problem for Johansson is her contract didn’t include the Disney+ sales and her royalty deal only gives from profits on the box office.
Robert Downy Jr made 55 million off his royalty on Endgame, but that was a post break even royalty.
Scarlett Johansson won’t get a royalty, because the box office underperformed. She very likely would get one off the Disney+ earnings.
Disney responded to her lawsuit by firing her from all future projects and removing her from the running of other stuff.
Seems pretty unfair.