The Yield Curve Is Pointing to a Severe Economic Slowdown.

in dtube •  6 years ago 


In this weekend report, from London on Saturday, May 25th, 2019 I look at the current economic climate and also the financial markets around the world.

I go over some of the major economic statistics that came out in the last week for the U.S. and the U.K. and what they mean for the economy going forward.

The most interesting and significant development in the financial markets this past week, in my opinion, was the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve as the spread between the 1-month T-Bill and the 10-year Treasury yield inverted to minus 4 basis points.

The yield curve had inverted and then dis-inverted earlier this year but the move this week is, in my opinion, an ominous sign for the health of the U.S. economy and other major economies around the world.

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Cd rates have gone backwards as well too. Long range cd rates are about the same as a 1 year cd. Doesn't make sense unless they are expecting a down turn in the next year or so.