Bullish for Stocks?
Expansions end when the economy hits a recession. Extrapolating from the past five business expansions the current expansion is expected to last until March 2019 according to Ed Yardeni.
Right now, the economy in the US and the economies around the world are humming along pretty nicely. US market returns by sector since Feb. 2016 look like this: (data from yardeni.com)
Financials (51.1%),
IT (50.3), Materials (40.0),
Industrials (36.9),
S&P 500 (33.0),
Consumer Discretionary (32.1),
Health Care (22.0), Energy (19.8),
Real Estate (19.3),
Utilities (17.0),
Consumer Staples (14.9),
and Telecom Services (1.5).
The #'s since the beginning of the bull market in March 2009:
Consumer Discretionary (471.2%),
Financials (380.3),
Information Technology (379.8),
Industrials (336.6),
S&P 500 (259.4),
Health Care (253.0),
Materials (214.2),
Consumer Staples (191.0),
Utilities (137.8),
Telecommunication Services (81.5), and
Energy (56.5)
There is a lot of hot air about there about pending destruction of the US economy due to debts. We'll look at this in closer detail in future posts. In the meantime, when companies are achieving continually higher earnings quarter after quarter, the downturn is still a ways off.
Image Courtesy Pixabay: https://pixabay.com/photo-1487990/
we both know that a crash is coming , when is the question
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We'll certainly have a recession in the near future. A crash is pretty vague. How bad do you think its going to get? Be specific. I'm not disagreeing but there is a lot of hype out their about how the sky is falling in. Most importantly, isn't all the groundwork being laid with the new technologies like blockchain going to make life a lot better? Won't the availability of cryptocurrencies make the world a better place? We'll certainly have to go through some dark times: the death of many of the institutions we have known all our lives. But there are bright times on the other side of that. A new way of living.
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i'm i going to be totally honest. 2008 was a blip to what is coming. it will feel more like what happened in the great depression. the up side to all this more people make there fortunes in times of panic.
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Its nice to have a positive perspective and I hope there isn't a downturn but we are way over due for one. I think that all we are doing is delaying the inevitable.
Anyway awesome article . UV RS & Follow .
I look forward to your post.
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