Still not in a recession.

in economic •  last year 

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Here are the coincident economic indicators for the last six months (the ones that NBER uses to determine a recession). As you can they are all above what they were in March. We are definitely not in a recession. In a recession most if not all of these indicators would be substantially lower.

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Here's GDPplus for what it is worth (black line). This is a measure that tries to compensate for the measurement errors of GDP and GDI. GDP and GDI get revised over time, so we won't know the "final" GDP and GDI numbers for the current quarter till years from now. GDPplus tries to model for that, so we can get a better contemporaneous picture of GDP.

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