For context I answered this question on Quora
It would be helpful to look at the root cause of unaffordable housing which has always been real estate speculation and the artificial scarcity cities and counties impose on land for the benefit of their property owning electorate. The housing scarcity created by short term vacation rentals is dwarfed by the scarcity created by:
- Setting aside 75% of residential land exclusively for single family housing
- Imposing square footage minimums of 1,000 sqft or more on those houses.
- Imposing high minimum lot size requirements for multifamily housing.
- Imposing minimum off street parking space requirements in dense urban cores where more multifamily housing is needed the most.
All of these housing regulations are far worse and create infinitely more scarcity than a few property owners leasing to tourists on VRBO ever did. These regulations were created for and protect the class interests of middle class homeowners who are responsible for 99% of the 7 million unit affordable housing shortage.
However, even if you were to wave a magic wane and make these specific regulations vanish single family housing would still be the predominate form of housing construction. Why? because its the most profitable. Subdividing large tracts of land for single family house subdivisions is highly profitable even before any construction takes place. If I have 10 acre lot valued at $100K and divide it into 20 half acre lots and sell them at $25K each I easily quintuple what the original parcel was worth. Multifamily housing is not only costlier on the front end it is also less profitable before development as well. The only way to actually make multifamily housing more common and single family housing less common is to make the latter less profitable at the beginning via a higher capital gains tax on undeveloped site value, much higher than the current rates, at least 50% or higher. The same rate would have to be applicable for any lots bought and held out for a higher price. Cities and counties would also need to set aside residential land for land trusts and housing co-ops to allow low income workers who are usually relegated to renting to become homeowners but not to capitalize on any appreciation in the site value of their house when they sell keeping home prices stable even with population pressures.