Inflation: why experts use the lipstick index in economics ?

"Making predictions is difficult, especially about the future".
This phrase, usually attributed to Danish physicist and Nobel laureate Niels Bohr, humorously sums up the predicament of those who dedicate themselves to anticipating what is to come to find themselves.
The economy is one of the areas where this difficulty is most evident and the failure is most palpable.
Despite this, economists make (and fail to make) predictions daily.
One of the difficulties they face in this task is that the process of producing standard economic indicators is time and labor-intensive, so usually when available they depict a set of conditions economies that existed several weeks or months ago.
It is partly to remedy this problem that some unusual but easier-to-measure indicators have appeared over the decades, sometimes making it possible to spot changes in economic trends more quickly.
BBC World tells you about some of the most unusual indicators used to predict changes in the economy.

• Index of cardboard boxes

This index is based on a simple idea: the more cardboard boxes are produced, the healthier the economy.
Assuming that many consumer goods around the world are packaged in cartons, carton production is a good measure not only of manufacturing activity but also of companies' estimates of their future sales.
Thus, a significant reduction in the use of cartons would indicate the approach of a recession, while an increase would indicate a period of economic expansion.
The US Federal Reserve publishes an official index not only on paperboard production but also on paperboard prices. However, Investopedia warns that these indicators are not always consistent with changes in GDP, and therefore recommends using them in conjunction with other indicators.
Another problem is that, given the increase in Internet shopping, it seems foreseeable that cardboard production will continue to increase, even if this will not necessarily take place in a favorable economic environment.

• Skyscraper Index

This indicator establishes a link between the construction of the tallest buildings in the world and the onset of an economic crisis.
It was formulated in 1999 by British economist Andrew Lawrence, who claims to have sought and found correlations between the completion of these huge structures and the onset of an economic recession.
The completion of the Chrysler Tower and the Empire State Building in New York during the Great Depression are recurring examples when discussing this indicator.
Lawrence clarified, however, that rather than taking a single skyscraper as a point of reference, he is instead referring to the completion of a set of skyscrapers, which he says tends to end "a great building boom".

• The pants' index

The origin of this indicator is attributed to Alan Greenspan when he was head of the US Federal Reserve.
According to NPR correspondent Robert Krulwich in 2008, Greenspan explained to him that sales of pants are a good economic indicator because their consumption tends to be fairly stable.
When times are tough, men tend to put off buying boxer shorts.
"If you look at trouser sales, you see a flat line that hardly ever changes. But the rare times it goes down, it means men are so tight [financially] that they're choosing not to replace their underwear. clothes. And [Greenspan] said that's almost always kind of a prophetic [sign] that trouble is coming," Krulwich told NPR.

• The Lipstick Index

The Lipstick Index was created by Leonard Lauder, heir and executive emeritus of cosmetics company Estée Lauder, in the early 2000s.
According to her thesis, when economic conditions are poor, women tend to buy more lipstick and other small luxuries, rather than spend on more expensive goods like handbags or shoes.
During the 2001 recession, when Lauder came up with this idea, retail lipstick sales increased by 11%. Cosmetics sales also increased during the Great Depression, between 1929 and 1933, and during the crisis of 2008.
This index, however, was not a good indicator of the economy when the covid-19 pandemic hit, probably because people were staying home and women were wearing masks when they went out, so the consumption of lipstick didn't make much sense.