We got five year revisions to GDP and GDI today. GDP got revised upward for 2020/2021 while GDI was revised downward for 2021 and 2022. So the gap between the two measures is not as large as before. Notably the composite GDO is now -0.25% for Q1 2022 and -0.4% for Q2 2022.
The third estimate of Q2 GDP was unchanged at -0.6%. The revision to Q2 GDI revised it down to 0.1% from 1.4% previously. Q2 GDO (the composite of both GDP and GDI) therefore was -0.25%.
The revision to Q1 GDP was unchanged at -1.6%. the revision to Q1 GDI was revised down 0.8% from 1.8%. Q1 GDO therefore was -0.4%.
The gap between GDP and GDI is now not as stark as before, though again in theory they should be identical.
There will be more revisions in the future that could go either direction. Later revisions can be quite large. One or both are invariably wrong, we won't know till later what the actual GDP was. At best we can use the composite GDO to get the best guess at the actual economic output.
Here's what real GDP and real GDI now look like after the five year revisions shifted GDP up and GDI down. Much less of a gap between the two now. Though notably still wide for 2022 so far. In theory there should be no gap, so one or both is wrong and will change with future revisions.
Tomorrow we get updates to personal income and consumption that will help shed some more light on the current economic conditions.