Job openings increased in September by 437k, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Here's what the Beveridge curve looks like at this point. Job openings are about 1.86x higher than the amount of unemployed. Down from the ~2x we saw in March, but still really high.
It was probably too optimistic to expect August's steep decline in openings to be repeated.
After the Q3 GDP release, here's what GDPplus looks like. Q3 GDPplus is 2.1% so far while Q3 GDP was 2.5%. Q3 GDI will be released at the end of November.
Notably both GDI and GDPplus have been positive this entire year. Both GDP and GDI undergo revisions over time in the years ahead, so we won't know the true picture of 2022 for awhile. Something to keep in mind with regards to the negative GDP numbers.
GDPplus was constructed for that reason. It is an alternative GDP measure that tries to account for this GDP measurement error to reflect the actual GDP value.
To put the revisions in perspective, originally the advance estimates for Q4 2008 had GDP at -3.8%. The 2018 revision for Q4 2008 was -8.4%. Now the revisions aren't usually that dramatic, but they can be relatively large.
Here's the actual FRED update to the recession probability model if you didn't trust my update. 0.48% chance we are currently in a recession.
Again to remind, this isn't forward-looking. It just evaluates the probability of a current recession based on four of the six coincident economic indicators NBER uses for recession determination. So it gives a probability to the real-time indicators.
