https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N
Extremely low probability that we are currently in a recession.
This model creates a probability we are in a recession using four monthly coincident economic indicators: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. These are four of the six indicators that the NBER uses to determine if we are in a recession.
Historically this model doesn't have a high false positive rate once the probability is above ~10%. Generally when this model has three consecutive months above 80% we are in a recession, while three consecutive months below 20% generally mark the start of a new expansionary cycle.
This model isn't forward-looking. It just evaluates the present probability of a recession. We can use leading indicators to forecast the risk of a future recession. For what it is worth, the leading indicators suggest a future recession is likely.
That being said the leading indicators hint at a recession likely in the months ahead. But the coincident indicators aren't seeing one yet.
This model isn't forward-looking. It just evaluates the present probability of a recession.
Here are what all six indicators the NBER uses to determine if we are in a recession looked like this year up to the latest available data. As you can see they generally look good still, so yes I would say the model is accurate we aren't in a recession yet.