Due to the recent interest of many people on what could be the first CRIPTODIVISA endorsed by a state around the world, and backed by some precious commodity like oil. I have done a little analysis to be able to understand a little more deeply the value and the true meaning of the new Criptomoneda announced by the first Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro; The Petro.
The Petro is a government criptodivisa, announced by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on December 4, 2017. Unlike other Criptodivisas, the Petro will be centralized under state control, and probably not have any guarantee of anonymity, its price will be backed by the reserves of crude oil, gold and diamond of the South American country.
The CRIPTODIVISA initiative by the Venezuelan Socialist government is driven by the scarcity of dollar capital in the country, and by the inability to borrow due to excessive borrowing and incapacity to pay. Venezuela has a debt of around 130 billion dollars, and was declared in partial default in November 2017 for not being able to pay part of it.
The Petro is nothing more than an alternative of the Venezuelan government to obtain loans that the large creditors do not want to provide. The market of this criptodivisa will be based abroad, and not in the national, in fact, Venezuelans are probably exempt from the participation and use of the new Criptodivisa.
During 2016 and 2017, for example, the government tried to change the national monetary cone in order to deal with inflation in a disastrous way. People did not know how the new tickets were and many were victims of scams, plus they lost countless hours trying to change tickets that until today are still used. If, by that time, the Government was unable to inform or organize the population well enough to have the pertinent knowledge regarding the new monetary cone, what makes us think that they will do something even more difficult as involving people to a market totally Innovative?
Although the value of Petro will be linked to a barrel of oil and will be backed by the government of Venezuela, the price is a matter of debate, since the Venezuelan government is socialist, and exerts a strict system of price regulation and exchange control With a deep animosity to the free market.
In Venezuela there are currently two valuations for the dollar:
-the first, the official price assessed by the government, is 714 bolivares per dollar.
-the second, the illegal price assessed by the market, is 111.413 bolívares per dollar.
This obsolete exchange control has created a corruption problem today that allows a small group of people, tied to the government, buy dollars at the official price and sell it at the market price having astronomical gains of more than 15.500% of Profits
-The main interest that the Petro arouses in many people is its support in the Venezuelan natural wealth, although this is quite important, is totally null why?
-To start the Venezuelan government is not at all reliable. Do you trust your government? No? Why should you trust a foreign government? Why should you trust a foreign government that has trouble payingoff its debts? Why should you trust a foreign government that has so little confidence on the part of the same people who live in your country?
-Although the endorsement of the Petro will be mainly oil, this oil will not be in new York, or in London, or in The Hague, or in Brussels, or in any of these cities where it could guarantee its delivery in case of a default, this oil will be found in Venezuela, and it will depend solely on the benevolence of the Venezuelan government to give you the corresponding in case of a problem, which more than unlikely is impossible.
-The support of Petro in oil is really fictitious, why there is no possibility that the Venezuelan government will effectively guarantee the above barrel. In fact, under current Venezuelan law, even support is illegal, because it is unconstitutional to alienate the nation's natural resources. While mature little cares about the Constitution, this same 2018 will hold presidential elections, and either democratically (if elections are fair) or in the form of a popular revolt (if elections are rigged), the Government of Maduro probably Go down, if this happens, the Petro will be eliminated. So currently betting on Petro, is to bet that mature is kept in power.
-If something has not been able to guarantee the Venezuelan Socialist government for almost 20 years is security.
Edward Snowden revealed in 2015 that the NSA spieded internal communications, emails, employee profiles, telephones, unique users/passwords and other data from state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) including high-level officials such as Rafael Ramírez, who was your president. And this without any obstacle, because according to their statements, the agency penetrated PDVSA's internal network without any security mechanism.
In the recent past, more than 20 government pages, including the Army, Navy and Air Force, were hacked by a group of young people as a protest against government repression.
The Venezuelan socialist government is totally incapacitated to maintain an effective security system with respect to the new Criptodivisa, taking into account also that it will be organized in a centralized way.