Polls are really noisy this early in the election year.

in election •  7 months ago 

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Wait until after the party conventions. Average polling error in March of the election year is ~8 points.

For context, polling right now is consistent with a final result of Biden +7.

It gets down to ~4-5 points as the election nears. Given that was the margin of the 2020 election, ~8 points is a relative football field of uncertainty.

And given Trump's criminal trials are starting in a few weeks and may be ongoing in the final days before the election, I think this year's polling will be especially noisy.

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