There is a saying in the tech world that "we usually overestimate what happens in the next two years and underestimate what happens in 10 years".
The ongoing car revolution is exactly like this. Give it few years and BAM! it's here.
Elon's Master Plan is halfway done:
Tesla CEO has pretty much executed the Master Plan, Part I and has now published the Part Deux that sounds realistic, at least to me. (I will tackle the solar panel business in a separate post)
While Elon Musk and Tesla are in the epicenter of the car revolution, there are tons of other stuff happening:
- Ford is repositioning themselves as a Mobility Company
- Toyota invests in Uber
- Norway is planning to ban the sale of petrol powered new cars
- The Netherlands has similar plans
- Mercedes-Benz is testing self-driving buses on the road
- Self-driving truck travel across Europe
These are just some examples of the electric and autonomous car revolution on its way.
We can easily imagine what that means:
- Less accidents, as autonomous cars can see far more than the human drivers
- Less pollution, as vehicles will be electric
- Less vehicles, as people will share, instead of buy (Uber, Tesla car-sharing, etc.)
And for the investors, business owners and employees it also means:
- Less cars will be manufactured - what happens to the top 10 car companies when they produce fewer cars but those are far more technologically advanced?
- Less taxi, bus and truck drivers - millions of jobs are in danger to become obsolete
- Less tires (and other parts) are needed - who's manufacturing those smart-tires for autonomous cars?
- Less insurance claims - car insurance is a huge business, what happens when cars don't crash?
- Less people will die or get injured in accidents - what happens to rehabilitation centers?
- Less bodyshop work - no bent fenders and paint jobs
- Less radio time as drivers can browse the web or watch videos while car drives itself
- Less people with driving licenses - what happens to the driving schools?
- More sensors - who manufactures cameras and radar, lidar, sonar sensors?
- More sharing - who builds all those car- and ride-sharing platforms? Tesla, Lyft, Uber and who else?
- More, much more code - AI and other software development is the key to the autonomous rides
This is truly a revolution, the biggest change since Henry Ford figured out the mass production.
Who are the winners and the losers and what does this mean to the global econony?
Great points. Where are all those people going to go when the jobs aren't there?
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I guess they do what humankind has always done, figure out a way to survive, aka career change :-)
A similar scenario is happening to most of the jobs that pay under $20/hour, right?
http://www.wired.com/brandlab/2015/04/rise-machines-future-lots-robots-jobs-humans/
Good news is that previously when people were given lots of leisure time, good things happened. First in the ancient Greece, all these philosophers started to pop up and think about things. Then, later on, Europe's aristocrats, bohemian's and scientists invested time and money in science, art, music, literature, etc. and that's why we have now knowledge of science, great symphonies, operas, classic books, paintings and stuff. So maybe jobless future takes the humankind to the next level in culture and science?
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Tesla!
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