1. How many MWh of electricity is produced yearly in the world?
In 2014, we have used 24,000 TWh of electricity.
1 TWh = 1,000 GWh
1 GWh = 1,000 MWh
1 MWh = 1,000 kWh
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
2. How many MWp of electricity is produced yearly by solar in the world?
Power of solar plants are measured by the maximum output of the plant at peak, called Wp
300 GWp have been installed up to 2016.
85 to 100 GWp are planned to be installed in 2017
The GWp are the power capacity at peak, production depend of inclination, orientation and latitude of the panels.
1 kWp produce between 1,100 kWh/year at a 45 ° latitude North (Lyon - Geneva)
Up to 1,500 kWh in South west US or North Africa.
As solar is installed all around the world, some in remoted area, offgrid, it is difficult to know exactly how much electricity is produced. A lot of solar is installed in Germany, with a little production.
We can estimate the total at something like 400 Gwp x 1100 = 440 Twh
440*100/24,000 = 1,8 % less than 2 %
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
3. What is the output of a solar carport?
From an experiment which has been made in France in 2011 by the National Institute of Solar Energy, a 20 sq meter carport produce enough electricity for an electric car to drive 10,000 km per year. (the sun does not send invoice, once your carport is installed, you never pay gas oil again.)
A 20 sq meter car port is 3 kWp, produce 3,300 kWh/year.
If you divide the electricity consumption of your electric car ( 300 Wh/km for Nissan Leaf) by the output of your carport, you find the same result.
4. What is the output of a typical solar farm that we'd like to build?
1,400 kWh / kWp
5. Economic facts
There is a big difference betwen the price you pay to the utility and the price the utility is paying to the power plant.
Hydro electricity is the cheapest : 2 cts/kWh
You buy your electricity at 11 cts/kWh in Florida, because Americans agree to destroy there environment with shale gaz. This price does not include the price of the war in Irak.
Your solar installation cost 1-2 $ /Wp (for large farm)
$ 3,000 - $6,000 for 3kWp car port
The cost of the structure is not included.
In the province of Valencia, the cost of electricity is 16 cts of euro /kWh
The production of 1 kWp in Alicante should be around 1,400 kWh /year
16c x 1,400 x 20 years = 4,480 €
This easy calculation is made with a stable price of electricity for 20 years.
Who think that the price of elctricity will not increase for 20 years ?
6. Facing the reality
The 3 real problems that nobody wants to hear about :
- Burning of Fossil fuel are the cause of climatic change and will force millions of migrants to moove, whatever the wall you will build.
- Burning fossil fuel in large cities are responsible for millions of premature death worldwide, due to air pollution
- Peak oil is a physical law, the consequences of peak oil will force occidental societies to change the way they live. The american way of live is gone forever. The war in Irak and Syria and the election of President Trump are the first symptoms.
Source : https://psmag.com/magazine/fallacy-of-endless-growth
Another very important fact about solar: it's been following a version of Moore's Law, with no sign of stopping. That means that the cost of solar is cut in half roughly every 18 months.
I've seen projections that in most states in the US, the cost of solar will be as cheap or cheaper than the current cheapest source of electricity by 2022. That's without any tax breaks.
Roughly 3 years after that (2025), the cost will have been cut in half twice, so solar will cost 1/4 of the next cheapest supply.
3 years after that (2028), solar would again be 4x cheaper, at just 7% of what it cost in 2022.
Keep in mind that's assuming that the price is operating in a vacuum, which obviously it won't be. Even so, it's pretty amazing to consider that 10 years from today electricity could cost 1/10th or less of what it does today.
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That's a very optimistic point of view on energy and I hope that you are right.
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The technology part isn't optimistic at all; that's been going on for several decades.
The part that's a bit of an unknown to me is supply capacity. As solar starts becoming notably cheaper than alternatives (say, starting at 20% difference), I would expect demand to start increasing significantly. If supply can't scale to meet that demand, then the decline of the price curve will slow down. I expect it'd keep going down, but maybe not on an exponential basis.
In any case, it's certainly going to be exciting!
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super interesting data. thanks for sharing!
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You are welcome !
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haha... loved the "this does not include the price of the Iraq war" jab!
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Do you know that for the price of the war in Irak, you could have powered USA with 100 % renewable energy ?
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Imagine what the one in Korea is going to cost! :-( :-(
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