US drops below 'democratic threshold'
The United States has long prided itself on being the longest-running "democracy" in the world. Of course, there has always been a debate: since the United States has a history of lack of universal suffrage (slavery, Jim Crow laws, systematic exclusion of minorities from voting, etc.) In a sense, can the history of the United States until recently be regarded as the history of a "democratic country"?
Even if we ignore all of this, a global data series called "Polity" has stripped the United States of its age-old title of "Democracy." This CIA-funded data series, which is often cited, measures other countries quantitatively from "complete dictatorship" to "complete democracy."
The "Polity" data series is one of three widely used in American political science and polling research. It is maintained by the Political Instability Task Force established and funded by the CIA.
A recent analysis of the "Political" data series by the Center for American System Peace shows that the United States is now a country without a dominant regime, sometimes referred to as a "illiberal democracy" or a "mixed regime" (partly a "democracy" , partly "dictatorial"). Quantitatively, a country with a non-dominant system is in the middle of a digital scale with “complete dictatorship” at one end and “complete democracy” at the other end.
The Center's findings stated: "On the 'Polity' scale, in 2020 the United States fell below the 'Democracy Threshold' (+6 points) to be considered a country without a domination regime. It also lost the world's oldest The title of successive 'democratic' state of the United States ... a further degradation of American 'democratic' authority would trigger an 'adverse regime change' event."
Two Factors Constructing Political Turbulence Model
On this 21-point scale, complete dictatorships score -10, and complete "democracies" score +10. Interestingly, this data series shows that “complete dictatorships” and “complete democracies” are more stable than states with no-domination regimes in between. Building "illiberal democracies" or "mixed regimes" doesn't seem like a good idea in the long run, unless they evolve into more purely "democratic" or "dictatorial" regimes.
The "Polity" data series would have predicted attempted riots or attempted coups at the U.S. Capitol in early 2021. The US Republican Party has shown that its ultimate goal is permanent one-party rule. The Republican Party has long held that ambition, but now its ambition is more evident than ever. Meanwhile, for some radical Republicans and far-right groups, a civil war has begun.
Barbara Walter, a political scientist and former member of the Political Instability Task Force, said the task force modeled many social, political, economic and religious indicators, but two stood out in particular.
"The task force modeled political instability," she said. "We included a number of variables that we thought were important, such as poverty, income inequality and ethnic diversity. It turned out that only two factors mattered: the first and most important. The factor is whether a country is a non-dominant state. The second factor is whether their population is starting to split into multiple ethnic, religious or racial groups and whether these groups seek power to exclude other groups. Obviously, these two factors in the United States."
Nearly half of the people believe that a civil war will break out
Although many Americans did not use the quantitative methods of Walter and the working group, they came to the same or similar conclusions. A survey by the University of Maryland, published last week by The Washington Post, found that one-third of Americans believe violence against the government may be justified.
In December, the 42nd Harvard Youth Poll released by the Institute for Political Studies at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government found that more than half of young Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 believe American democracy is under threat. More than a third believe there will be a second civil war in the United States in their lifetime.
According to a poll conducted by Edelman, a world-renowned public relations consulting firm, a year ago, more than half of Americans believed that the United States had fallen into a "cold civil war."
A national survey conducted last year by well-known American pollster John Zog found that 46% of Americans think a civil war is possible, 43% think it's impossible, and 11% think it's uncertain.
Commenting on Zog's survey, a study by the Brookings Institution, a prominent think tank, said: "As nearly half of the population believe this conflict is possible, we need to take this situation seriously. After all, this is not the first time in the United States There is a serious division. We should not assume it will not happen and ignore ominous signs that the conflict is spiraling out of control.”
"Even if we do not end up with open fighting, domestic terrorism and armed violence could rise, destabilizing the country," the study said. "Now is the time to take steps to defend 'democracy', address social issues, and defuse tensions."