MARKET ANALYSIS USD/JPY forex signal - U.S. Consumer Confidence - 27 Mar 2018

The conference board will be releasing the consumer confidence data today at 14:00 GMT. The conference board's consumer confidence data measures the level of confidence among consumers in the U.S. economy covering various aspects including spending, wage growth, employment inflation.

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The forward looking indicator is expected to give a glimpse into how U.S. consumers feel about the economy. The data covers the period of March. According to the economists polled, the consumer confidence data is expected to rise to 131.2.

This marks a slight acceleration from 130.8. In February, consumer confidence touched a new high as U.S. consumers felt more confident in the economy. The optimism came on the back of the U.S. fiscal policies where President Trump announced over a trillion U.S. dollars in infrastructure spending as well as the tax cuts that were announced in December last year.

For the survey for March, there is scope that the data could disappoint. This comes amid concerns that the recent Trump's policies which many view to be as protectionist could potentially pose a threat to the global trade. Looking other similar surveys, we can see consumer and business confidence in other parts of the world was bleak for the months ahead. A similar trend could thus be reflected in today's report as well.

Besides the consumer confidence data, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index data will also be released. The forward looking indicator is seen to feed into the ISM's manufacturing PMI due to be released in a week's time. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index is forecast to fall to 23 compared to the increase to 28 the month before.

Today's forex trading signal is USDJPY given that the data from the U.S. influence the currency pair and the Japanese yen reflects the global risk sentiment. The currency pair has been retracing the declines and price action is seen approaching the previously breached support level at 105.79.

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Therefore, we are looking to short USDJPY at 105.79 targeting 105.24 while having stops near 106.00. We expect USDJPY to post a reversal at 105.79 and close lower on the day.
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