FiveThirtyEight's House forecast is now live.

in fivethirtyeight •  5 months ago 

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Their initial forecast has it as a literal coin toss.

Only 9 seats are rated as toss-ups.

Only 27 seats are rated as leans or toss-ups. That is similar to other forecasts.

So the House majority may be very thin for either party. And we may not know who has the House majority for awhile if we are waiting on a couple seats to decide the majority.

Also it means we may see the House majority shift over the term as vacancies occur. Which aren't uncommon.

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