So here goes. I've used my EPL Indexes to build an algorithm that predicts the outcome of upcoming Premier League fixtures.

SCORE PREDICTIONS

Here are the first set of score predictions.

Home Team	Home Goals	Away Goals	Away Team
Man United	1	0	Man City
Arsenal	3	2	Southampton
Bournemouth	0	2	West Brom
Burnley	0	1	Hull
Middlesbrough	1	0	Crystal Palace
Stoke	1	3	Tottenham
West Ham	1	0	Watford
Liverpool	2	1	Leicester
Swansea	1	1	Chelsea
Sunderland	1	2	Everton

I will compare my predictions to the actual results on Monday.

BEATING THE ODDS

Just for fun, I’ve decided to place some bets on the outcomes. I’m using Betfair that allows me to back and lay teams. Amounts are in £ sterling. As you can see I’m not a big gambler!

My bets

Bets	Type	Odds	Liability	Return
Arsenal	Back	1.6	2	1.2
West Brom	Back	4.1	2	6.20
Burnley	Lay	2.42	2.84	2
Tottenham	Back	1.85	2	1.70
Liverpool	Lay	1.67	1.34	2
Chelsea	Lay	1.63	1.25	2
		Totals	11.44	15.0

My Rationale

I’m backing Arsenal because even though my algorithm predicted a tight home win, the range shows that the score could easily be 3-1 or 4-1 to Arsenal. Arsenal are also playing at home. This should be a banker. West Brom to beat Bournemouth is my value bet. My algorithm points strongly towards an away win and the bookmakers are offering generous odds. I was tempted to stake a little more on it, however as it is early in the season, I’ll play it conservatively. I’m also getting decent odds on Burnley not beating Hull. Given my algorithm has an away win, this bet plays itself. Tottenham should beat Stoke, so no controversy there. Liverpool not beating Leicester is a risking bet. Liverpool at home is an unknown quality. I’m betting this one on value (and Liverpool’s general inconsistency over the years). Also my algorithm has Liverpool only just winning, this game could very well be a 1-1 draw. Swansea vs Chelsea promises to be closer than advertised according to my algorithm. I’m playing this one as Chelsea are probably over-priced.

Bets I passed on

The following bets, I’ve decided against playing as I feel there is little value at the odds given,

Bets	Type	Odds	Liability	Return
Man City	Lay	3.55	5.1	2
Crystal Palace	Lay	3.8	5.6	2
Watford	Lay	4.7	7.4	2
Sunderland	Lay	3.9	5.8	2
		Totals	23.9	8

UP NEXT...

I’m actually looking forward to seeing how my algorithm fares! Even though it’s the first iteration and has a limited dataset, it's fun to put the theory into practice.

Later in the week, I’ll be using these predicted results to determining the best players to pick for my FanDuel fantasy football team.

Game on!