I last spoke about the US dollar about 1.5 months ago,
On the monthly chart, price is in the middle of the curve or in the middle of the range between $80 and $102, but is trending down. However, on the monthly chart, the monthly candles have been closing higher than the previous candle since Feb, signaling bullish price action.
There is a stack of sell orders sitting at $93. One can sell this level, but only after have confirmation on the 15 minute chart that price wants to go down.
If set up #1 doesn’t work, there is another stack of sell orders higher level at $94.25. This level I would be willing to enter the trade as an limit order.
The set-up at $93.00 was good for almost a Reward:Risk ratio of 3:1, but the 2nd set-up at $94.25 didn't work. The fact that we are in a Monthly Supply zone, the smaller time frames caused or eventually caused a reaction. However, US dollar has been relentless since May in anticipation of continued increases of interest rate.
From a fundamental Macro view point, I'm bearish on the US dollar.
which has also been confirmed from a technical macro view as well.
Now, lets zoom in a bit close to see where the US dollar may head next.
Monthly Chart (curve time frame) - the US dollar is in the middle of the curve. Current extreme low is $80 and current extreme high is $102.
Weekly Chart - (trend time frame) - the US dollar is in a downtrend. If the monthly supply at $95 is breached, the trend will be range bound, but price would then has to contend with 4 different weekly supply levels. Meaning there are tons of sellers who have their orders waiting at different levels to short the US dollar. The nearest weekly demand level is at $89.50 at this time. Thus, consider the situation the path of least resistance.....DOWN.
So, will the US dollar recent relentlessness continue? In the short run...maybe, but the medium to longer term, NO.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
this week will be nice to watching
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outstanding work as always....dollar undoubtedly is toast (in the end)...and apprec. always your support. China will dictate.
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