It's the unsettling backdrop of French politics in 2021 – a feeling of déjà vu. A year ahead of presidential elections, poll after poll puts President Emmanuel Macron in a 2022 rematch against far-right leader Marine Le Pen. But French voters say they don't want to relive that 2017 duel a year from now. And history, at least, is on their side: France's presidential elections are often rife with spectacular surprises.
Back in 2017, Macron's victory was the last in a series of improbable plot twists. As a never-before-elected centrist, Macron, then only 39, mounted an unlikely bid for the presidency as an independent at the head of his own fledgling movement, famously seeing off long-established parties to make it to the presidential run-off. His meteoric rise culminated in beating the populist Le Pen in her second bid for power. He scored 66.1 percent of the vote to her 33.9, becoming the youngest president ever elected in France. Macron's tour de force left traditional parties reeling, a state of disarray from which they have yet to recover.
Four years on, France has weathered storm after storm of disquiet and dissent – deadly terrorist attacks, fiery Yellow Vest protests, a pension reform revolt that shut down large swaths of the country and a once-in-a-century pandemic. And yet here we are again.
"The battlefield remains outrageously dominated by the two 2017 finalists," the Journal du Dimanche said earlier this month, after polling it commissioned from the Ifop firm indicated a likely Macron-Le Pen rematch. Testing 10 different first-round hypotheses all brought the same result, with Macron ultimately topping Le Pen 54 to 46 percent in the run-off. "No other configuration but the Macron-Le Pen duel seems, for the moment, plausible," the weekly concluded.
Le Monde published a similar survey outcome this past weekend, with the 2017 "finalists comfortably ahead in every scenario envisaged" in a panel of 10,000 voters polled by the Ipsos firm, with the incumbent topping his populist rival 57 to 43 percent in the run-off. "The Macron-Le Pen duel, for the moment, trounces every other alternative," the newspaper said.
A deceptive stasis?
But polls are not predictions, only snapshots of potential voters' feelings at a moment in time. They describe a mood; although cumulatively – insofar as politicians use them to shape strategy, cast doubt on rivals and build momentum – they count.
A vast majority in France – 70 percent in another Ifop poll – say they don't want a Macron-Le Pen replay next year. But so omnipresent is the polling on that scenario that nearly half (48 percent) of those surveyed by the Elabe polling firm last month even deemed Le Pen "certain or probable" to win the presidency in 2022, up seven points in a six-month span.
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