Statistical Analysis Saturday 14th July

Ascot 2.25

3/1 Escape The City, 4/1 Considered Opinion,
5/1 Beshaayir, Hunni, 11/2 Lady Freyja, 8/1 Odyssa,
14/1 Bubble And Squeak, 20/1 Apple Anni.

Fillies Handicap over 8f
8 Previous renewals
This has gone to lightly raced horses
All 8 winners had under 8 runs
Horses with 8 + runs were 0-21

ESCAPE THE CITY has 9 runs
Although more than every previous winner
I can forgive her that quite easily
What I don't like is her lack of recent runs
ESCAPE THE CITY has raced once in 211 days
Only 1 run since before Christmas last year
Good run first time out at Royal Ascot
But can't be sure to reproduce that run
Not second time back from a long break
Hasn't shown she properly stays 8f either

BUBBLE AND SQUEAK doesn't offer enough
APPLE ANNI is short of runs this season
She isn't running good enough numbers

LADY FREYJA won a 7f race last time
Hard to follow up over a long distance
She has more runs than all past winners

ODYSSA is a 3yo up in distance
Not a strong profile with a month off

BESHAAYIR steps up from 6f to 8f
Only 8 horses tried that none won
Not a negative but not a safe profile

HUNNI has a decent enough profile
She comes here after a career best
But she is from a small stable
If you look at his sire Captain Gerard
His runners over 8f and more
In Class 3 or higher
Have a 0-20 record so far

CONSIDERED OPINION is shortlistable
Nothing wrong with her overall profile
Some say she is vulnerable off her rating
But it is only a mark of 83
And she ran a career best last time

Selection

CONSIDERED OPINION 9/2

Each Way

Ascot 3.35

9/4 Cross Counter, 4/1 Occupy,
7/2 Gossip Column, 7/1 Berkshire Royal,
8/1 Elegiac, 10/1 Desert Path, 16/1 King's Proctor

3yo Handicap over 12f
5 Past renewals
21 similar races elsewhere

5 Past winners
They all had 4-9 career runs
4 of the 5 winners
Had 4-6 career runs
3 of these came from the same race

CROSS COUNTER is rated 101
He faces a 0-94 class field
His weight and rating will test him
But he has an ideal profile for the race
He comes from the perfect trial race
5 Past renewals of this race
3 of them came from the same race
The King George Handicap at Royal Ascot
The 2013 2015 2017 winners came from this race

OCCUPY has a similar profile
He is also a positive
Main worry would be his sire
Who has sired 12f winners in lower grades
Not yet in this class of race before

Past winners had 4-9 runs
GOSSIP COLUMN has more than that
Not an ideal match to a winner
He is up in class and weight today
And from a low scoring sire over 12f

KINGS PROCTOR isn't the right type
BERKSHIRE ROYAL has a chance
May not be progressive enough to win
DESERT PATH can't be ruled out
But he is going up 2 grades in class
ELEGIAC is up in class and weight
Lightly raced so reluctant to rule him out
The nature of the race
With so many lightly raced horses
Means few can be confidently ruled out
CROSS COUNTER is the class horse
With the ideal profile for the race
OCCUPY has as well and is a saver

Selection

£8 Win CROSS COUNTER 2/1- 9/4

£2 Win OCCUPY 4/1

Limerick 4.25

11/8 Childrens List, 6/4 Nick Lost,
9/2 Mine Now, 12/1 Cote Tete.

3m Chase

Any of these could win
CHILDRENS LIST may be the weak link
Last ran 91 days ago in the Grand National
He was 66/1 and far too inexperienced
Only had 4 chase runs going into Aintree
It was very soft ground at Aintree as well
Yet he pulled up only after the last fence
That could easily have set him back
No saying where his career will go now
Could be heading back to Aintree 2019
Has to prove the stuffing is still in him
Aintee hasn't knocked it out of him
CHILDRENS LIST looks far too risky

The problem is the alternative
None of the others can be ruled out
This staking might be on the ugly side
But it seems logical given the prices

Staking

£3 Win COTE TETE 12/1

£2 Win MINE NOW 5/1

£5 Win NICK LOST 11/10

This effectively means
We are on COTE TETE
An unbeaten Chaser
At an adjusted price of 3/1
With money back on 2 horses
And only one that can beat us

ANGELS & OBSERVATIONS

Newmarket 1.40

9/2 Gilgamesh, 8/1 Mubtasim, Mukalal, 10/1 Makzeem,
16/1 Firmament, Masham Star, Mjjack, Spanish City,
20/1 Love Dreams, Speculative Bid, 25/1 Burnt Sugar,
25/1 Cardsharp, Ice Lord, Muntadab, Shady McCoy,
25/1 Tupi, Von Blucher, Borderforce, Mountain Rescue
33/1 Reckless Endeavour.

Bunbury Cup
Had a look at this midweek
Did some statistics + shortlist

Among these angles
Horses Aged 4 from 6f were 0-36
Gilgamesh the favourite fails this
Interesting to see if we get him beat
These horses passed my angles

Masham Star - Muntadab
Firmament - Spanish City

Guessing and playing here
I'd want to utilise the 4 places
As we'd only need 1 horse placed
Not to lose and money on the race

My preferred option
Of staking and selection is this

£2.50 Each Way - Spanish City 10/1
£2.50 Each Way - Firmament 14/1

Ascot 1.50

11/8 Mendoza, 7/2 Glory, 11/2 Nuremberg,
7/1 Hieronymus, 12/1 Bubbelah, 14/1 Joshadam,
14/1 Miss Enigma, 16/1 Goldino Bello,
25/1 Duke Of Yorkie, 50/1 Running Tide,
50/1 Windy Guest.

7F Novice

MENDOZA sets the standard
He has the best numbers after 2 runs
They were over shorter distances
And his stable is extremely unreliable

I wanted to split stake this race
GLORY has raced once before
Well behind on the numbers
But he was staying on very nicely
He was drawn very badly on his debut
No unraced horses win their debut
When drawn so high at Windsor in any race
A draw not far off impossible to overcome
I would upgrade that run significantly
GLORY could easily be an each way bet
But going to split stake this instead

£6 Win GLORY 4/1
£4 Win MENDOZA 5/4

Newmarket 2.15

11/4 Blue Point, 5/1 U S Navy Flag, 5/1 Eqtidaar,
7/1 Sands Of Mali, 8/1 Dreamfield, 8/1 Redkirk Warrior,
10/1 Limato, 14/1 Brando, 20/1 Sioux Nation,
33/1 Sir Dancealot, 33/1 Fleet Review,
50/1 Spirit of Valor, 66/1 Intelligence Cross

July Cup

We have looked at this race already
Discussed in Future Betting Angles

I wont repeat all the analysis today
Eqtidaar came out best statistically
He is a lightly raced 3yo improver
I suggested a small ante post bet

Eqtidaar 7/1
£2.50 Each Way

Yesterday I ran some numbers
I found a persuasive angle here

Last Time Out
Racing Post Ratings

123 Blue Point
116 Sir Dancealot
115 Eqtidaar
113 Sands Of Mali
111 Dreamfield
109 Intelligence Cross
108 Brando
107 Fleet Review
106 U S Navy Flag
96 or less - All others

We should take these 2 horses
EQTIDAAR with the best profile
BLUE POINT with the best numbers

EQTIDAAR is drifting badly

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet BLUE POINT 11/4
£2.50 Each Way EQTIDAAR 8/1

Navan 2.30

15/8 Sakura, 5/2 Ascot Dreamer,
7/2 Queen Mia, 14/1 Dancing Mountain,
14/1 Glamorous Power, Olay Power,
20/1 Amberscole, Born Invincible, 25/1 Tessiesee,
33/1 Emily Grace, Social Imposer.

5f Fillies Maiden

SAKURA sets the standard
May just be a flaw in her profile

SAKURA drops from 6f to 5f
Having raced only once before
That was only 7 days ago

2yo Fillies
Running in 5f fillies race
Since 2010
Any time of year
1 Career start
Dropping in distance
Running within 10 days
Return a 0-19 record

Not the most persuasive profile
But I'd avoid her at a short price
The problem is finding an alternative
QUEEN MIA is unraced
ASCOT DREAMER's numbers average

BORN INVINCIBLE 14/1 is unraced
She's been well backed at big prices
She could easily be the one
But I would be guessing here
If the opposition is modest
Sakura may yet be good enough
But with that profile I'd give her a miss

York 2.35

11/10 Dal Harraild, 4/1 Scotland,
9/2 Dylan Mouth, Time To Study,
14/1 My Reward.

1m 6f Group race

No 7yo has won this race
SCOTLAND is a 7yo
His profile is not safe enough
Given he drops down 6 furlongs
DYLAN MOUTH is also a 7 year old
I'd have liked more runs given his age

DAL HARRAILD is the best horse
He has a favourites chance
But he is not the biggest of horses
And he faces an absence of 105 days
All past winners ran within 6 weeks
I want to buy him out of the race
Take the class horse and fittest horse

Split Stake

£5 Win DAL HARRAILD 11/10
£5 Win TIME TO STUDY 9/2

Newmarket 2.50

7/2 Assembly Of Truth, 11/2 Zagitova,
6/1 New Jazz, 13/2 Spanish Aria, 8/1 Laxmi,
8/1 Gallic, 8/1 Romola, 14/1 Miss Serenity,
16/1 Antonia De Vega, 20/1 Thebah,
20/1 Rux Power

7f Maiden for 2yo fillies

ZAGITOVA is unraced
Respected from Aidan O'Brien
She could easily need the race today
She'd be shorter if strongly fancied
Also think an unraced filly here
Drawn as high as stall 12 has a lot to fo
Unraced fillies since 2013
Drawn 10 or more here are just 1-61
NEW JAZZ has a similar problem
As an unraced filly drawn 11
MISS SENERITY is not hard to avoid
Can't see her getting home on debut
ROMOLA very likely to need the run

Shortlist

ASSEMBLY OF TRUTH 7/2
SPANISH ARIA 4/1

SPANISH ARIA is interesting
Powerful stable having 2nd start
Ran very well on his debut
She was favourite on a Grade 1 track
Unraced drawn 1 at Newbury as well
That is far from a helpful draw
Stopped in her running as well
Could be used as a win bet
With a saver on Assembly of Truth
But I'd rather bet her each way
With an expensive Irish debutant

Selection

SPANISH ARIA 4/1

Each Way

Limerick 3.15

Mill Quest won 10 lengths yesterday
If she is allowed to run again
She would be automatic selection
Handicap Hurdles May to November
Run in any class any distance
Show 36 horses with her profile
18 of these won in a 50% strike rate

Chester 3.15

11/4 Arbalet, 9/2 Oh This Is Us, Shabaaby,
11/2 Kimberella, 6/1 Lake Volta, 10/1 Make Music,
14/1 Tommy Taylor, 20/1 Chessman, Promising,
33/1 Simply Me.

7f Listed race
Didnt see enough in Shabaaby
Not as a 3yo going up in distance
Kimberalla rejected also up in trip
Make Music may have class limitations
Career best Racing Post Rating of 96
Easily beaten by several of these

Shortlist

ARBALET has a chance
OH THIS IS US is like a winner
LAKE VOLTA from a good trial race
May try and make all from Stall 1

I'd save on LAKE VOLTA
Could be a £2 win bet at 7/2

The remaining £8 stake
£4 each way OH THIS IS US 5/1

York 3.40

9/2 Dash Of Spice, 7/1 Thundering Blue,
11/1 Appeared, 12/1 Kynren, 14/1 Brorocco,
16/1 Across Dubai, Master The World, What's The Story,
20/1 Another Touch, Dawaaleeb, 20/1 Mordin,
25/1 Sir Chauvelin, 25/1 Born To Be Alive, Euchen Glen,
25/1 Master Carpenter, Tandem, Titus, 33/1 Dance King,
33/1 Fayez.

John Smiths Cup
Had a look at this midweek
Did some statistics + shortlist

We have had some non runners
This was my midweek Shortlist

DAWAALEEB 25/1
WHAT'S THE STORY 16/1
ACROSS DUBAI 14/1
MORDIN 20/1

DASH OF SPICE is favourite
He drops down from a 12f race

Horses down in distance from
Coming from 11f or more
Have a 0-83 record since 1997
He fails this persuasive angle

APPEARED fails the same angle
Looks unsafe with 1 run this season

THUNDERING BLUE is down in trip
All 83 horses doing that lost since 1997
MASTER THE WORLD has this problem
He is older than ideal with a nasty absence
TANDEM wrong aged 9 from a 12f race
DANCE KING wrong aged 8 from a 13f race

EUCHEN GLEN drops from a 2m race
SIR CHAUVELIN drops from a 2m race
Makes this pair very hard to fancy

Horses aged 6 or more are 1-95
MASTER CARPENTER is now a 7 year old
BORN TO BE ALIVE isn't safe
Not up in distrance with 84 days off
FAYEZ looks very beatable
TITUS wouldn't be my first choice

ANOTHER TOUCH has 28 runs
BROROCCO has 27 runs
I'd prefer a less exposed horse

Past winners had the following runs
11 37 19 13 6 10 5 7
8 of the last 9 winners
Had 19 or fewer runs
7 of the last 9 winners
Had 13 or fewer runs
KYNREN was well beaten last time

Happy with my original shortlist
THUNDERING BLUE gets a wild card

DAWAALEEB wouldn't be first choice
Not winning a lower class race over 8f
Stepping up in class and distance

Shortlist

THUNDERING BLUE is down in trip
All 83 horses doing that lost since 1997
With him - I am ignoring that statistic
I can find a runner up with his profile
He looks very progressive
Made him a big negative last year
When favourite for the Cambridgeshire
Two runs ago he had a lifetime best
Showing he was still progressive
Last time was more than excusable
Drawn 20 of 20 at Ascot
Over a trip I think he failed to stay

WHAT'S THE STORY 16/1
Stall 1 bothers me with him

MORDIN 20/1
Not quite safe enough
With 6 runs and up in distance

ACROSS DUBAI 14/1

Selection

£3.50 Each Way ACROSS DUBAI 12/1

£1.50 Win Bet THUNDERING BLUE 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet WHAT'S THE STORY 16/1