WHAT NEXT?
I’ve just voted and now the long wait until they start counting the votes after polling closes at 1700 hrs. I guess this is as good a time as any to do some scenario planning.
Broadly, there are two main scenarios:
BN wins.
i) Najib retains his seat. Then, its business as usual and he’ll make it even harder to oust him at GE15. He’ll appoint Shahrizat as a senator and give her a Minister position.
ii) Najib loses his seat. Then, there will be a battle within UMNO for the PM’s post. By default, the DPM ought to become PM but Ahmad Zahidi has to retain his seat. He may face a challenger in the form of KJ, but I think Najib is backing his cousin Hishamuddin to cover his ass. Needless to say, all three are idiots and self-serving, so there’s not much hope for Malaysia.PAKATAN HARAPAN wins.
i) Mahathir wins the Langkawi seat and becomes PM. He’ll have to be sworn in as PM before he can form a cabinet from senior Pakatan Harapan candidates who’ve won. He may have to appoint people like Tian Chua as senators if he wants them in the cabinet.
Even if Najib retains his Pekan seat, its unlikely he’ll be leader of the Opposition as the new Home Minister, as his first official duty, is likely to have in thrown in jail. So who becomes Leader of the Opposition depends on who is most senior/popular among the UMNO leadership who has retained their seat.
The new Home Minister is very likely to replace the IGP, the Attorney-General and release all political prisoners.
Likewise, the new Finance Minister will replace the Auditor-General and Arul Kanda Kandasamy, the CEO of 1MDB.
ii) If Pakatan wins but Mahathir loses in Langkawi then there will be a tussle among the Pakatan Harapan senior leaders who have retained their seats. Wan Azizah may become Malaysia’s first female PM, or it may be Muhyiddin or Mat Sabu. Anwar will have to be pardoned and appointed a senator before he can be made PM, so it’ll take a while. Even longer if he has to wait for the next by-election to be voted in as an MP.
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PAKATAN HARAPAN LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE
