Geology and Civilization Part 5: The Mightiest Minerals

Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4

I'm linking here to my three part series on coal- it's an obvious inclusion in the early part of Geology and Civilization. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.

Donald Trump has started a trade war he's literally incapable of winning. Right now, China has an economic trump card (pun intended) that can't really be beaten by anything that the United States can bring into play. That card? Rare earth elements.

Yttrium, a rare earth element used in lasers, spark plugs, superconductors, cancer treatments, and more.[Image source]

Rare earth elements, or REEs, are a group of 17 metallic elements with numerous industrial and commercial uses. They're used in cancer treatments, glass, computers, cellphones, guided missiles, ceramics, speakers, magnets, lasers, nuclear reactors, spark plugs, x-ray machines, and more. A Toyota Prius contains about 25 pounds of REEs. Industrial civilization literally cannot function without them, and China controls between 92 & 97% of the world's supply.

Despite their name, rare earth elements aren't actually that rare. Many of them are, in fact, quite common, some of them even as common as copper. REEs even tend to be found together. The problem is that they don't tend to concentrate very much. They're distributed widely throughout the crust. The only rocks we tend to find them in are pegmatites (usually found in metamorphic belts) and the rare and exotic carbonatite lavas (associated with rifting zones.) They can also be found in certain muds and clays, where they were washed into after being leached out of rocks bearing them. This has the effect of concentrating them even away from rocks with higher concentrations of REE bearing minerals.

Gadolinium, used in specialty glass, computer memory, nuclear reactors, MRI machines, and more.[Image source]

So how'd China get a stranglehold on the world supply, if they're so well distributed? Well, first off, China does have about a third of the economically exploitable REE deposits and clays, so that gives them a huge edge. Their control comes from a very deliberate strategy, however. In the 90s, following the fall of the Soviet Union, China began investing in REE refining and mining companies. Despite the clear national security consequences of losing control of supply chains of vital national resources, the Clinton and second Bush administrations allowed China to move most US based production to China. China accompanied this with a massive artificial price drop for REEs, effectively putting everyone else out of business.

It seems illogical that no one would have noticed or stopped China from doing this, but the world was in something of a euphoric haze after the fall of the Soviet Union, and optimism in the power of free trade was boundless. China's methodical strategy was, however, entirely in line with their past methods of geopolitical maneuvering. Mao's conquest of Tibet was fairly explicitly for the purpose of acquiring the Tibetan plateau watersheds, which act as the source for the rivers that provide water to 46% of the world's population. Acquiring the global supply of REEs in the same way is entirely in line with China's past strategies.

Lutetium, named after the Roman city Lutetia that would become Paris. Used in PET scans, LEDs, and in refineries.[Image source]

China's also proved far from recalcitrant in using its control of the rare earth element supply to its advantage in negotiations. Following a diplomatic incident with Japan involving two crashed ships in 2010, China effectively cut Japan off from REEs. They also instituted export quotas or REEs. A challenge before the World Trade Organization forced China to back down by 2014, but it's fairly questionable whether the WTO would rule in America's favor again when we started this new trade war.

There are still ample deposits of rare earth elements scattered around the globe, however. So why don't we just start mining those? Well, we actually have been working on developing many of these deposits, but we've run up into a weakness of our free-market capitalist system we don't like to acknowledge. China, by forcing down their prices again during the WTO hearings, effectively shut down the profitability of REE mining again, preventing many private companies from doing much work. It hasn't stopped development entirely, but China has continued investing at a faster pace, including current development efforts in Greenland. Our system cannot effectively accomplish a great number of tasks unless they are profitable, no matter how essential they are.

Samarium, used in rare-earth magnets, lasers, masers, and nuclear reactor control rods.[Image source]

The United States and other industrial nations aren't screwed in the long term, of course- the US has quite a few REE deposits of its own, and is developing others in locations like Afghanistan. Opening a mine is a laborious process in the best of times, however, and given the more extensive environmental reviews (which is to say, any environmental reviews) and the higher costs of labor, it's even slower. The importance of rare earth elements wasn't a surprise to anyone, and the development process was underway- but it would have been rushed even faster, however, if industry insiders and political pundits hadn't assumed that Trump's discussion of a trade war with China in the election was merely a rhetorical device. China's invulnerability in a trade war in this geopolitical climate wasn't even close to a secret, so actually starting one would be insane. Unfortunately, it was a bad assumption.

The biggest problem with developing more mines? Thorium. International treaties governing the use and disposal of radioactive elements are extensive, comprehensive, and pack a serious bite. Since thorium is found mixed with rare earth elements more often than not, and thorium disposal requirements are quite strict, opening a REE mine requires a plan for dealing with the thorium. China can do this incredibly easily, because it's one of two countries in the world that uses thorium nuclear reactors, alongside Canada. Since the US doesn't use thorium reactors, despite some nuclear scientists regarding it as superior to other nuclear reactors, it puts us in a real bind.

Terbium, used in magnets, lasers, magnetorestrictive alloys, fuel cells, naval sonar systems, and more.[Image source]

If a trade war between the US and China had broken out a decade from now, we'd likely be fine. Even five years from now would be much less risky. Right now, though, Trump's decision was a foolhardy one, unless China decides to play nice and keep sharing their REEs. (Not to mention the damage he's doing to soybean farmers, one of his major constituent groups.) The trade war is hardly the only pressing issue surrounding REEs right now, however. There are also the inevitable (from me, at least) environmental complaints.

Ecologically, REEs themselves aren't among the nastier pollutants out there. The process of purifying REEs and removing them from rock, however, is a really nasty one. It involves the use of incredibly strong and toxic acids, which can have serious consequences on nearby aquatic ecosystems. Toxins like cerium oxide are also a problem. The aforementioned thorium is also a huge problem, as is uranium, which appears in REE ores fairly frequently as well. Depressingly, it's not that hard to ensure that REE mining has relatively low environmental impacts, and yet it happens constantly anyways. Molycorp, the American company that was eventually bought out by China, was actually shut down at once point for violating environmental regulations.

A false-color satellite image of a rare earth element mine in China that has caused immense environmental damage to its surrounding region. [Image source]

If there's one single lesson to be learned here, it's that the Earth doesn't play fair with its natural resources. They're distributed willy-nilly across the globe, with little care or attention for where our national borders lie. I could do several more articles on resources that one or two countries have a monopoly on for one reason or another. This is one of the core lessons that environmental history has to offer us- the course of civilization can, and often is, altered by geologic, ecologic, and other natural circumstances entirely outside of our control.

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Bibliography:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earths_Trade_Dispute
• http://theweek.com/articles/765276/how-china-win-trade-war-1-move
• http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/china-the-implications-of-bottling-tibet-s-water/
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_rare_earth_mine
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molycorp#Mountain_Pass_mine
• https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rare-earth-elements-china-monopoly-60-minutes-lesley-stahl-2/
• https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-06/rare-earths-are-chinas-most-potent-weapon-trade-war
• https://www.fastcompany.com/1694164/how-handful-countries-control-earths-most-precious-materials
• https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Rare-earths-permitting-hurdle-ready-to-fall-for-Greenland
• https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-five-options-in-the-trade-war-with-the-u-s-rare-earths-are-chinas-most-potent-weapon-in-a-trade-war/5635157