Accelerating globalization? Change?

Since the global epidemic, large economies have released large amounts of water. Yet even with strong stimulus from governments, the global economic outlook remains bleak.

Where does the world go after the outbreak? The most common judgment at the moment is the reversal of globalization, so start with globalization.

This new corona outbreak will not fundamentally change the world pattern, but will accelerate the course of history.
This judgment is based on changes in the power of states.
The fundamental factor that determines the world pattern is the strength and the comprehensive strength of each country. From the present point of view, although the new crown epidemic to the economy caused serious harm, resulting in casualties are not small, but this is not enough to hurt the fundamental strength of countries, not hard to hit the strength of countries, the strength of the world's strength, there is still no fundamental change, which determines that the world pattern will not change significantly (unless there will be major changes later, thus changing the balance of strength of countries).

Now, we are basically in the "post-American era".

Today's situation has changed:

The world pattern from the original Western-led, to the present East-West balance, the world model from the original Western model, into the current "China model" and "Western model" coexist, the upcoming fourth industrial revolution, will greatly promote these changes.

The new epidemic has shown the world that America's anti-China-based foreign policy is struggling to meet today's global challenges, whether it's public health security, climate change, or other threats. After the outbreak, the Western model is likely to decline further.

At the same time, however, it should be noted that history has always changed productivity. Whether it's the steam engine in Britain, the Anglo-French and American of the electrical age, or the United States in the information age, there is no exception.

To this day, the United States is still the world's most powerful country, its scientific and technological power is still alive, it is still at the forefront of the fourth industrial revolution, and even led the fourth industrial revolution, which determines that it will still have strong productivity in the future.

The national power generated by advanced productivity determines that the United States will remain the world's dominant power for a long time to come.

It was against this backdrop that the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the financial crisis of 2008 and the refugee crisis that evolved during the Arab Spring in 2011, culminated in the rise of Western conservatism and nationalism, and mr. Trump's success in the "Black Swan".

The United States to fight a trade war, build a border wall, and even clamor for a new Cold War and decoupling, is also the embodiment of these two major isms.

And so is Brexit.

In the short term, protectionism is likely to be more prevalent in the short term, as people become more convinced of how important it is to have a good industrial chain in their home countries and how bad it is if important commodities are heavily dependent on the outside;

But in the long run, globalization is irreversible.

The root cause is that globalization means optimal allocation of resources, represents more advanced productivity, the times are moving forward, never more and more backward productivity.

Since the outbreak, the political and business elites of The American Capital Group and the Establishment ItA, including Kissinger, Albright, Zoellick, Bill Gates, Dario of the Bridge Water Fund, and Joseph J. Joseph J. The speeches by American scholars Graham Allison and Fukuyama all argue that the United States, China, Europe, Russia and other major powers need to work together to establish a new international order to deal with the post-epidemic situation.