Gold falls below $1300 – will it fall further?

Today is Wednesday 16th May 2018 and we are commenting on Gold’s recent fall below $1300 On Sunday 6th May, just 10 days ago, we published a video entitled ‘Why Gold will fall below $1300 by June 2018’. We quoted the following in conclusion: “So there we have it. Not one serious forecaster is predicting gold above $1510 or below $1,120 – considerably less than the $3000 or $5000 an oz we often see on the ‘Fake News’ Pumper channels. Our view is that gold will fall into $1200 territory very soon and almost certainly before the end of June unless of course some erroneous black swan should happen to swim into our channel.” Well, faster than expected admittedly, yesterday, Gold did just that and as we are writing this Gold stands at $1287. So what caused this dramatic fall. Well, the US is experiencing a combination of 17-year low unemployment and strong US retail Sales while admittedly suffering from rising petrol prices, and the current trade tariff battle between the US and China. The present 2.7% wage growth is slightly ahead of inflation, but admittedly if this were to change then the US economy could hit a major stalling point. The US Dollar has recently experienced its fastest growth in value in 18 months and traded near to its five month high, a jump not seen since November 2016 – so much for the predicting of its imminent collapse. Whilst we still forecast even lower prices than they currently stand, we still caution about geopolitical events. Only yesterday North Korea cancelled the summit with South Korea and this could result in a cancellation between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un’s meeting planned. Contrarily, If the markets shrug-off the situation with North Korea, then gold is likely to continue to weaken further especially if Treasury yields continue to rise and we may indeed see gold reaching close to $1250 and if that happens silver will fall below $16 once again.