First, the carnival optics. I have zero problem with the image below, or Kid Rock performing or something. Like... does it represent a lack of seriousness? I guess, but it's totally on brand for Trump in a way that's evolved from embarrassing to kind of endearing. The silly ear bandage thing attendees are doing like they wanna be old boomer versions of Nelly? I see people saying it's cultish and stuff and sure... but they're trying to show support for their guy right after he got shot, and let's face it... there's been a lot more cringey fashion choices I've seen at every national libertarian convention, even if you don't count James Weeks and Starchild. I'd give them a pass days after the shooting for having a bit of cringe and needing to get some release through Grindr.
Second, the substance. It's obviously the most moderate GOP platform of my lifetime. It specifically calls for no cuts or changes to entitlements, including no personal accounts or raising the retirement age. It deletes the pro-life language that's existed since Roe. It specifically is in the realism camp of foreign policy, which neoconservatives might call isolationism and others might call antiwar light and they call America first. They've also officially dropped any pretense of being the party of free trade, and replaced it with protectionism and tariffs. For people of my leanings? The downside is that they've completely dropped any pretense of supporting fiscal conservatism, and the upside is that among the major parties, they're officially the antiwar one.
It's a mixed bag, but they're now a populist party more than anything, one that started the convention with the head of the teamsters, several speakers railed against big business as a pejorative, and is emphasizing championing the working man. Like... it sees itself as representing the middle class against the rich elites that control the Democratic party. Under Trump, it's been making gains with lower income voters, black voters, hispanic voters, those without a college degree, younger voters, and the only voting groups it's really been losing is straight white males and higher income voters.
The party is more unified than I've ever seen it. My entire lifetime, the GOP has been in tension between, you know, the Rockefeller and Goldwater wings. Between the old country club moderates and the more libertarian learning upstarts. There's been some impact from smaller consistencies, most notably neoconservatives and social conservatives. But all four of those groups have essentially been steamrolled, and no longer have a political home without abandoning core beliefs and expecting less representation of their ideas.
And the choice of Vance, if Trump passes the torch in four years, makes it more likely to be a realignment that outlives Trump himself. I don't think the Democrats have really processed the change that's happened here, and don't know how to respond. As far as I go? There is no major party even pretending to be fiscal conservatives anymore, even if neither party has really delivered that in practice. But Democrats seem to be in denial about whatever this change really is, and seem to still be taking their traditional constituencies for granted.
There's credible reports Biden is likely to bow out of the race, so I guess they've got an opportunity to try and respond to the new Republican coalition. But it seems likely Biden would lose to Trump. It seems even more likely that Kamala would lose to Trump, despite not having dementia and being able to complete sentences. Maybe Michelle Obama could beat him, but she doesn't really represent a new direction. If it was Hilary or Newsom, I literally might consider changing my vote from Chase to Trump because they're both that awful. I don't know what their other options even are, but I think they're just as blindsided as the country at the fact that this version of the GOP might actually be their new normal, rather than an aberration of a singular candidate.