**The Coming Collapse of the American Empire:
(if certain steps are not taken to prevent it)
by Crypto Astronaut
Without going into an endless diatribe of exacerbating details about HOW and WHY "America" (United States of..) is an empire, let me first propose the premise of this essay: all empires collapse, and this is a fundamental fact of nature in regards to any large, complex system.
Science has shown us that decline, in almost every fundamental regard to the universe at large, is always much more rapid than growth.
With this fact in our minds, let us analyze a few graphs that demonstrate this case in point.
These are all rather random examples, and the list is many to choose from.
Image #1 is a graph analyzing wage growth, from 2002-2019.
As you can clearly see, around 2007-2008, there is a clear and immediate drop-off. Unless you've been living underneath a rock in a cave somewhere in Egypt, you're probably aware of why that is, and you need no further explaining.
Image #2 is a graph in which its title is self-explanatory.
The first vertical half of this graph is based on real data, as it goes to ~2015 in the middle.
The second vertical half of the graph is based on data projection until the year 2035.
As this graph demonstrates, the estimated projection of all sources of energy production by the year 2035 is roughly 10-15% of what is now.
We will refer to this image later.
Image #3 is an image roughly depicting the rise and fall of many famous empires.
One problem I have with this image is it doesn't accurately depict the growth/decline cycles visually as well. The lines up and down are nearly vertical and inconsistent with the historiography itself. For example it took over 400 years to build the British empire, and less than 50 for it to collapse. We know Alexander built his empire in roughly 10 years, and we know it fell on the very same day he died.
With these facts and visualizations in our minds, we can now begin to grasp the essential notion that it's not a question of if, but WHEN our own American Empirewill collapse.
So how can we predict when this will happen? Well, first and foremost, we study history. Because, in order to predict the future accurately, you must first understand the cyclical nature of history, and the cyclical nature of Nature itself.
Around 2,000 years ago the famed Roman philosopher Seneca made the observation that “Growth is slow, while the road to ruin is fast.” From AD 54-62 he served under the infamous Emperor Nero, who some would say, was a very stable genius (/s). In AD 65, Nero decided he just didn't like Seneca anymore, and told him to kill himself. Seneca obeyed, slitting his wrists. It appears that Seneca himself was even a victim of his own philosophical observation.
The moral to that story is that Seneca knew instinctually then what we know factually now. And that is that large, complex systems are subject to immediate and sudden collapse when one, or some of its working part fail to function. Innumerable examples exist, but I will only cite a few here:
Ex. #1 - Star Death.
After a star is born and lives a few billion years or so, it will enter into an inevitable cycle of decay and death. Without divulging the specifics; there are usually only 3 types of ways Stars die.
A. The star expands into a red giant, expends its fuel, then collapses into an ultra-dense white dwarf. It has expended all of its energy and fuel, but continues to exist, as it gradually cools and radiates its energy.
B. The star is so massive, that it transforms into a red supergiant. After this life cycle expires, its matter collapses upon itself so violently and rapidly due to gravitational pressures that it rebounds and causes a massive explosion - known as a supernovae. Which later forms a black hole.
C. Be Luke Skywalker, take Obi-Wan's advice, shut off the guidance computers, and use The Force to guide your proton torpedos to the thermal exhaust port.
Ex. #2 - Decline of the Greeks-
The decline of the Greeks happened in just a few short generations and was attributed to Sub-replacement fertility rates by the historian Polybius; he said, and I quote:
"In our time all Greece was visited by a dearth of children and generally a decay of population, owing to which the cities were denuded of inhabitants, and a failure of productiveness resulted, though there were no long-continued wars or serious pestilences among us…. For this evil grew upon us rapidly, and without attracting attention, by our men becoming perverted to a passion for show and money and the pleasures of an idle life, and accordingly either not marrying at all, or, if they did marry, refusing to rear the children that were born, or at most one or two out of a great number, for the sake of leaving them well off or bringing them up in extravagant luxury."
Sound familiar? In case you've been living under a cave and behind a rock, you're probably aware of this allusion and its similarities to our modern society. With LGBTQ+, boys becoming girls, girls becoming boys, abortions, Planned Parenthood, and record numbers of teenage virgins on the rise... the analogy is quite stunning. No great society can function without a strong and energetic youth.
Ex. #3 - Foreign Invasions.
The Fall of the Western Roman Empire.
Thousands of books have been written on this subject, and many documentaries produced as well. There are a million facets as to how and why the Roman empire fell, but all historians agree on the single most important factor, and that factor is foreign invasions.
In 410 AD, the King of the Visgoths, Alaric, finally sacked Rome on his third try (you know what they say). In 455 AD, the Vandals (the original vandalizers) decided to come into Rome, take a bunch of shit, and spraypraint graffiti everywhere.
Not to mention that around the same time this cool guy named Attila and a bunch of cool friends of his, The Huns, decided to come into Europe and start kicking asses and taking names. Which is exactly what they did. As a result, it stimulated a wave of "barbarian" invasions into Rome's overstretched borders. These were Germanic peoples like the Goths, Visigoths, and others whom were fleeing the devastation and atrocities of their Hunnic conquerors.
At the time, Rome's borders were stretched to its limits, its military was weakened, and it could not fend off these waves of people seeking refuge (and plunder). In fact, many of these borders were guarded by paid barbarian mercenaries who ended up turning on Rome. After countless battles, many of which were defeats, Rome was not prepared or even capable of fending off Attila and his horde. However, when Attila invaded Italy he accidentally let his troops destroy all the luscious farmland north of the Po. So when it came time to march to Rome, his soldiers had nothing to eat, so he was forced to make amends and retreat. Whew, that was a close one, but then in 476 a Germanic military leader named Odaecer led a revolt with all his cool German friends, went to Rome, made the Senate and Pope kiss his ass (cliffnotes edition), and had himself declared King of Italy.
Without an emperor, the Empire was no more.
This was but one example of how foreign invasions can contribute to the collapse of empires, and there are a plethora of them. I decided to choose Rome not only for its historical significance to Western civilization, but also because it so closely mirrors our own. I'm not going to attempt to classify or describe who the invaders of America might be, but I can certainly assure you they aren't axe-wielding Germanic barbarians.
Ex. #4 - Economic and financial trouble.
Here, once again, we can reference ancient Rome. Oppressive taxation. Constant and expensive wars. Political division. Widening gap between Rich and Poor, and absence of middle class. Demand for low-skill laborers (slaves) and lack of supply. Inflation. Lack of resources.
I will argue that out of those economic factors that parallels our modern economy, lack of mineral resources is perhaps the most egregious. Empires are built on resources, and I shall explain.
Relation of Resource Abundance and Growth; Subexamples:
A. The first great empire of Mesopotamia, the Akkadian, had a king named Sargon. Sargon declared silver as the medium of all exchange in the region, and then went kicking asses everywhere he went and taking their silver. One of his first conquests was in Southern Anatolia, where there were rumored to be "mountains of silver". And there were. From the silver mines that he built there he could go on to pay for more infrastructure, soldiers, etc. You see, Mesopotamia is not well known for its mineral resources. It is mostly arid farmland near the rivers, and desert everywhere else. Sargon conquered various regions for their valuable resources, such as the cedarwood that Lebanon is famous for. Or the Lapis Lazuli mines in Afghanistan. With the lush farmland of the Tigris and Euphrates to feed a growing population, and the mineral abundance of the mountainous frontiers, you have the recipe for empire.
B. Rome, again. Rome did not aggressively expand into a great empire until after Julius Caesar's conquests into Gaul. After Brutus and his homies did their thing and Octavius (Augustus) came to power as the first Roman Emperor, he set the empire's eyes on the Iberian Peninsula (Spain). With plenty of yummy farmland in Gaul, and all the riches in Iberia, we could do big thangs, right? After lots of fighting and gnashing of teeth, the Romans eventually conquered Iberia and had all that wonderful gold, silver, tin, copper, and iron that an iron age civilization needs. Of course, over the course of a couple centuries, the mines were depleted. As such, the empire could no longer expand, and could only attempt to hold on to what it had left. The rest is history.
C. The British. Although the British began to aggressively expand starting in the 1600's in search of gold and silver, they also sought cotton and tobacco to trade for shiny gold pounds and silver shillings (note the importance of silver and gold again). However, it really wasn't until the 1800's that they really started to take over ... the entire world. With the aid of the Industrial Revolution, and the abundant amounts of coal on their island; they had the economic, technological, and militaristic power to subjugate over 400 million people and 10 million square miles of territory, which is the equivalent of roughly 1.5 times the size of modern day Russia. Indeed, it is the largest empire that has ever existed, which is why it was said that the "Sun never sets on the British Empire". All of it was fueled by coal. Later that century, technological discoveries were made, and a much more efficient energy source was found.
Oil.
After considering all of these examples and sub-examples, we come to the conclusion that this American Empire is based on oil. The Soviets rivaled us at one time, but eventually collapsed once they no longer had the means or power to control oil production.
Oil production is declining, and expecting to decline even further. Despite new advances in technology, and new production of oil by shale- these results are only temporary boons. The supply of oil will dry up eventually. Estimates differ, but average between the years 2030-2050. We can only assume that when our main source of energy production is inevitably depleted, our civilization and empire will only decline.
So, the question is, which route will we take? Decline or collapse?
Democrats, (the politicians, not the voters), seem to be hellbent on an outdated imperialistic worldview. From antagonizing Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, etc... to supporting deep-state ploys. It is understandable, as the political base is middle-class and wishes to reclaim economic prosperity by plundering foreign nations.
Republicans on the other hand represent the elites, who are of the opinion that our only hope for survival rests in retrenching into American isolationism, and whom would rather plunder the middle-class.
It seems that either way we go, we are in a no-win situation.
Donald Trump represents the elites, and despite his elaborate boasting, I believe he understands which way the wind is blowing. I believe he is trying to turn around our parasitic imperial economy into a self-sufficient national economy. This will not be an easy task, and he very well may fail in this undertaking. Especially considering the amount of opposition from within and without. Great empires do not collapse quietly. As always, it is accompanied by war, civil war, famine, disease, and lack of resources.
Note: Donald Trump (always a popular topic) is not the cause of this transitional phase. The recipe was already in place, and he is only a symptom of the change that needed to occur if we are to become a self-sufficient nation. Gandhi once said "The world has enough for every man’s need, but not enough for every man’s greed.”
We have several options on dealing with this inevitable collapse, and a couple of potential outcomes. The first and most likely is that we engage in a series of resource wars (cough Iraq cough), struggling to hold on to what we still have, leading to a new Dark Age, ala the Roman Empire. Or, we could take what little we have left and invest it into renewable energy technology, perhaps staving off some of the consequences of a World Without Oil.
In other words, I refer back to Star Death. Shall we become a white dwarf, much colder and weaker than before, yet lasting into perpetuity? Or shall we enter the Supergiant phase, inevitably exploding into a Supernova, and then collapsing into a black hole?
I prefer the former to the latter, not for my sake, but for the sake of humanity.
It is sad to say, but we will witness, perhaps in our lifetimes, the greatest loss of human life in the history of our planet. Billions. The events of World War II will pale in comparison. I am not being apocalyptic with this statement, it is just quite factual. It is simply unsustainable, and the main factors will be war, disease, famine, birth control, and lack of resources. It's not a question of if, but when.
Things always change, and nothing stays the same. This is a fundamental law of the universe, and it is called entropy. We should not be so naive as to think they we are immune to the effects of entropy, and we should remember the words of Seneca.
All we can hope to do is attempt to minimize the effects it has on our nation. Either we will weather the storm, or we shall succumb to its fury.
I suggest you be prepared, and by writing this essay, I hope I've done my part.
©rytpo Astronaut
- 2019
